Ειδοποιήσεις από το σύστημα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης DONKI της NASA (διαστημικός καιρός, Ήλιος)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: GST
Message ID: 20251211-AL-002
Issue Time: 2025-12-11T00:15Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-11T00:15:25Z
## Message ID: 20251211-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.33 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-12-10T21:00Z to 2025-12-11T00:00Z.
The storm is caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-12-10T20:00:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20251210-AL-002) and is likely associated with the arrival of CME with ID 2025-12-08T01:38:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20251208-AL-004, 20251208-AL-007) and/or CME with ID 2025-12-08T05:12:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20251208-AL-006, 20251208-AL-007).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-12-10T21:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Magnetopause Crossing with ID 2025-12-10T21:58:00-MPC-001 (see notification 20251210-AL-003).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-11T00:05:46Z
## Message ID: 20251211-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.33 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-12-10T21:00Z to 2025-12-11T00:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Magnetopause Crossing
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-10T21:17:29Z
## Message ID: 20251210-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Strong compression of the magnetosphere detected. Simulations carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2025-12-10T21:58Z.
The activity is associated with the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-12-10T20:00:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20251210-AL-002) and with the arrival of the CME with ID 2025-12-08T01:38:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20251208-AL-004, 20251208-AL-007) and/or CME with ID 2025-12-08T05:12:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20251208-AL-006, 20251208-AL-007).
NASA spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-10T20:47:15Z
## Message ID: 20251210-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by ACE/DSCOVR at L1 at 2025-12-10T20:00Z.
The shock may be caused by CME with ID 2025-12-08T01:38:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20251208-AL-004, 20251208-AL-007) and/or CME with ID 2025-12-08T05:12:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20251208-AL-006, 20251208-AL-007). Some magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm likely.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for December 03, 2025 - December 09, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-10T20:00:31Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-12-03T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-12-09T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20251210-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity reached high levels during this reporting period with 1 X-class flare, 14 M-class flares, 2 O-type CMEs, 21 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-12-04T03:24Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-12-08T04:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 2-4 (below minor)
(see notification 20251204-AL-003).
The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1.
2025-12-04T07:00Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-12-08T04:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 2-4 (below minor)
(see notification 20251204-AL-003).
2025-12-05T07:09Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-12-08T08:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 2-4 (below minor)
(see notification 20251206-AL-001).
The combined arrival of the above CMEs was likely detected at L1 around 2025-12-07T11:03Z.
2025-12-06T21:12Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-12-09T04:41Z, Kp index 6-8 (moderate to severe)
(see notifications 20251206-AL-004, 20251208-AL-005).
Ensemble results: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-07_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088/Detailed_results_20251206_211200_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088.txt
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2025-12-09T07:55Z.
2025-12-08T01:38Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-12-10T13:33Z, Kp index 5-7 (minor to strong)
(see notifications 20251208-AL-004, 20251208-AL-007).
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2025-12-10T03:23Z.
2025-12-08T05:12Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-12-10T13:33Z, Kp index 5-7 (minor to strong)
(see notifications 20251208-AL-006, 20251208-AL-007).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-12-05T07:09Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-08T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251206-AL-001).
2025-12-06T21:12Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-12-08T17:31Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-08T20:08Z, STEREO A at 2025-12-08T22:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20251206-AL-004, 20251208-AL-005).
2025-12-07T22:00Z BepiColombo at 2025-12-09T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251208-AL-001).
2025-12-08T01:38Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-12-10T04:34Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-10T07:48Z, STEREO A at 2025-12-10T18:00Z (glancing blow), Juno at 2025-12-24T06:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20251208-AL-004, 20251208-AL-007).
2025-12-08T05:12Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-12-10T04:34Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-10T07:48Z, STEREO A at 2025-12-10T18:00Z (glancing blow), Juno at 2025-12-24T06:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20251208-AL-006, 20251208-AL-007).
2025-12-08T22:36Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-12-11T07:58Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-11T08:26Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2025-12-11T21:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20251209-AL-001, 20251209-AL-003).
2025-12-09T00:12Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-12-11T07:58Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-11T08:26Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2025-12-11T21:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251209-AL-003).
2025-12-09T18:45Z BepiColombo at 2025-12-10T16:19Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-12-15T16:00Z (glancing blow), Juice at 2025-12-12T19:00Z (glancing blow) Lucy at 2025-12-19T14:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251210-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=6.67 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 6.67 occurred during the synoptic period of 2025-12-03T18:00Z to 2025-12-03T21:00Z (see notifications 20251203-AL-003, 20251203-AL-004). This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-12-03T05:01Z (see notification 20251203-AL-001) which was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE on 2025-12-03. Simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 2025-12-03T22:15Z (see notification 20251203-AL-005).
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt remained elevated above the threshold level of 1000 pfu at the beginning of the reporting period due to a threshold crossing from two reporting periods ago starting at 2025-11-25T12:50Z (see notifications 20251125-AL-001, 20251125-AL-002, 20251127-AL-001, 20251129-AL-002, 20251201-AL-004, 20251203-AL-002). The energetic electron flux levels returned to background levels late on 2025-12-03.
The >2.0 MeV energetic electron flux levels crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu again at 2025-12-05T15:00Z (see notifications 20251205-AL-001, 20251207-AL-001, 20251209-AL-002). This subsequent elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE on 2025-12-03. The energetic electron flux levels remained elevated through the end of the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES, the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels detected at SOHO, and the 13-100 MeV protons detected at STEREO A were all at near background levels for the entire reporting period. A brief elevation was detected by GOES, SOHO, and STEREO A late on 2025-12-06 through 2025-12-07. This elevation was likely associated with the M8.1 flare from AR 14299 (N23E02) peaking at 2025-12-06T20:39Z and associated CME seen at 2025-12-06T21:12Z in SOHO LASCO C2.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-12-04T03:24Z ~516 C -39/1 22 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-12-04T07:00Z ~651 C -41/-36 35 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-12-05T07:09Z ~629 C -14/20 27 STEREO A, SOHO
2025-12-06T21:12Z ~905 C 3/9 43 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-12-08T01:38Z ~767 C 11/11 34 STEREO A
2025-12-08T05:12Z ~664 C 40/20 35 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-12-03T06:22Z ~585 C -43/49 13 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-12-04T02:24Z ~594 C NONE(POS)/-11 15 SOHO, GOES
2025-12-04T09:36Z ~512 C NONE(POS)/-26 19 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-12-04T12:00Z ~517 C NONE(POS)/-27 10 SOHO
2025-12-05T08:12Z ~527 C 14/-34 19 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-12-05T15:48Z ~629 C NONE(POS)/0 10 SOHO
2025-12-05T17:22Z ~721 C -100/-8 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-12-05T20:00Z ~509 C 135/14 11 SOHO, GOES
2025-12-07T06:24Z ~1148 O -44/-8 13 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-12-07T08:36Z ~1112 O NONE(POS)/15 14 SOHO
2025-12-07T22:00Z ~686 C 88/32 14 SOHO
2025-12-08T07:24Z ~533 C 7/56 21 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-12-08T22:36Z ~855 C 30/18 17 SOHO, GOES
2025-12-09T00:12Z ~748 C 35/6 17 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-12-09T16:15Z ~505 C 28/45 15 GOES, STEREO A
2025-12-09T18:45Z ~803 C 114/-21 23 GOES, STEREO A
2025-12-09T21:24Z ~518 C -60/32 16 SOHO, GOES
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-12-10T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-12-16T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently seven numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Regions 14294 (S17W64), 14296 (S15W52), 14298 (S16W86), and 14299 (N22W48) produced significant flaring activity during the reporting period and may continue to produce similar levels of flaring activity during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. The energetic electron flux levels at GOES exceeded the threshold of 1000 pfu starting at 2025-12-05T15:00Z (see notifications 20251205-AL-001, 20251207-AL-001, 20251209-AL-002) and may continue to be elevated during the outlook period due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE on 2025-12-03. A coronal hole centered around N35E05 (as seen in available imagery from GOES/SUVI 195) may reach geoeffective longitudes beginning on or around 2025-12-13.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Europa Clipper, BepiColombo, Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-10T00:45:30Z
## Message ID: 20251210-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by GOES / STEREO A.
Start time of the event: 2025-12-09T18:45Z.
Estimated speed: ~803 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 23 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 114/-21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-12-09T18:45:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Lucy (glancing blow), Europa Clipper (glancing blow), BepiColombo, and Juice (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-12-10T16:19Z, and the flank of the CME may reach Lucy at 2025-12-19T14:00Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-12-15T16:00Z, and Juice at 2025-12-12T19:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-12-09T18:45:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251209_224700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251209_224700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251209_224700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251209_224700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251209_224700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251209_224700_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251209_224700_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251209_224700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251209_224700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-09T18:34:10Z
## Message ID: 20251209-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2025-12-08T22:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20251209-AL-001), now simulated with the CME with ID 2025-12-09T00:12:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-12-11T07:58Z and its flanks will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-11T08:26Z and STEREO A at 2025-12-11T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
CME parameters are:
1: Start time of the event: 2025-12-08T22:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~855 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 17 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 30/18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-12-08T22:36:00-CME-001
2: Start time of the event: 2025-12-09T00:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~748 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 17 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 35/6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-12-09T00:12:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-12-08T22:36:00-CME-001, 2025-12-09T00:12:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-12-08T22:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.2 flare with ID 2025-12-08T22:04:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-12-08T22:28Z.
This CME event (2025-12-09T00:12:00-CME-001) is possibly associated with M2.0 flare with ID 2025-12-09T00:37:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-12-09T00:58Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-09T16:00:03Z
## Message ID: 20251209-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-12-09T14:35Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-12-05T15:00Z (see notifications 20251205-AL-001, 20251207-AL-001) are caused by the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-12-03, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 730 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 370 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-09T03:22:06Z
## Message ID: 20251209-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-12-08T22:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~855 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 17 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 30/18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-12-08T22:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-12-11T10:00Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-11T10:00Z, and STEREO A at 2025-12-11T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-12-08T22:36:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-12-08T22:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.2 flare from AR 14299 (N26W30) with ID 2025-12-08T22:04:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-12-08T22:28Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Juno, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-08T18:47:38Z
## Message ID: 20251208-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CMEs with IDs 2025-12-08T01:38:00-CME-001 and 2025-12-08T05:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20251208-AL-004 and 20251208-AL-006). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact Juno (glancing blow). The combined flank of the CMEs will reach Juno at 2025-12-24T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulations also estimate that the CMEs may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter and STEREO A (glancing blow). The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-12-10T04:34Z and Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-10T07:48Z (plus minus 7 hours). The combined flank of the CMEs will reach STEREO A at 2025-12-10T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-12-10T13:20Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
CME parameters are (C-type):
1: Start time of the event: 2025-12-08T01:38Z.
Estimated speed: ~767 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 34 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 11/11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-12-08T01:38:00-CME-001
2: Start time of the event: 2025-12-08T05:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~664 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 40/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-12-08T05:12:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-12-08T01:38:00-CME-001, 2025-12-08T05:12:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-12-08T01:38:00-CME-001) is associated with M2.4 flare with ID 2025-12-07T23:56:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 14299 (N25W13) which peaked at 2025-12-08T00:12Z.
This CME event (2025-12-08T05:12:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.1 flare with ID 2025-12-08T04:49:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 14298 (S12W53) which peaked at 2025-12-08T05:01Z (see notifications 20251208-AL-002, 20251208-AL-003).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-08T18:37:04Z
## Message ID: 20251208-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-12-08T05:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~664 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 40/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-12-08T05:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-12-10T16:40Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-10T22:07Z, and STEREO A at 2025-12-10T22:02Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-12-11T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-12-08T05:12:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-12-08T05:12:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.1 flare with ID 2025-12-08T04:49:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-12-08T05:01Z (see notification(s) 20251208-AL-002, 20251208-AL-003).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-08T16:30:42Z
## Message ID: 20251208-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-12-06T21:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20251206-AL-004). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 40 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:
- STEREO A between about 2025-12-08T18:40Z and 2025-12-09T00:03Z (average arrival 2025-12-08T21:07Z) for 20% of simulations.
Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-12-08T18:07Z and 2025-12-09T16:29Z (average arrival 2025-12-09T01:08Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 94% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-8 range (minor to severe).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-07_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088/20251206_211200_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-07_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088/20251206_211200_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-07_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088/20251206_211200_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-07_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088/20251206_211200_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-07_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088/20251206_211200_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088_STA_stack.gif
## Notes:
The CME event with ID 2025-12-06T21:12:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-08T20:08Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-12-08T17:31Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20251206-AL-004).
The CME event with ID 2025-12-06T21:12:00-CME-001 is associated with an M8.1 flare from Active Region 14299 (N23E02) with ID 2025-12-06T20:29:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-12-06T20:39Z (see notifications 20251206-AL-002 and 20251206-AL-003).
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-07_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088/Detailed_results_20251206_211200_ncmes1_sims40_LAHAINA088.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-08T14:42:17Z
## Message ID: 20251208-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A.
Start time of the event: 2025-12-08T01:38Z.
Estimated speed: ~767 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 34 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 11/11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-12-08T01:38:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-12-10T03:56Z and Solar Orbiter at 2025-12-10T07:36Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach STEREO A at 2025-12-10T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-12-10T13:47Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-12-08T01:38:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-12-08T01:38:00-CME-001) is associated with M2.4 flare with ID 2025-12-07T23:56:00-FLR-001 from Active Reggion 14299 (N25W13) which peaked at 2025-12-08T00:12Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.1 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-08T11:46:06Z
## Message ID: 20251208-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-12-08T04:49Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-12-08T05:01Z.
Flare intensity: X1.1 class.
Source region: S12W53 (Active Region 14298) (based on GOES SUVI imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-08T05:05:42Z
## Message ID: 20251208-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-12-08T05:00Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-12-08T00:28:42Z
## Message ID: 20251208-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-12-07T22:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~686 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 14 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 88/32 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-12-07T22:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-12-09T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-12-07T22:00:00-CME-001):
