Ειδοποιήσεις από το σύστημα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης DONKI της NASA (διαστημικός καιρός, Ήλιος)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: RBE
Message ID: 20260908-AL-001
Issue Time: 2026-09-08T16:29Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-09-08T16:29:16Z
## Message ID: 20260908-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2026-09-08T15:50Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are likely caused by the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2026-09-07, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 560 km/s, and the arrival of the CME with ID 2026-09-05T11:09:00-CME-001 and the CME with ID 2026-09-05T18:09:00-CME-001. The combined arrival of these CMEs was likely detected at L1 by SOLAR-1 at 2026-09-07T18:25Z. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 480 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, BepiColombo)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-09-07T15:35:23Z
## Message ID: 20260907-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-09-07T01:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~668 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 49 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -132/-8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-09-07T01:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Lucy (minor impact) and BepiColombo. The leading edge of the CME may reach Lucy at 2026-09-21T00:00Z and BepiColombo at 2026-09-08T03:47Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-09-07T01:48:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260907_073400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260907_073400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260907_073400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260907_073400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260907_073400_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260907_073400_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260907_073400_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-09-07T12:26:04Z
## Message ID: 20260907-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by SOLAR-1 at L1 at 2026-09-06T20:40Z.
The shock may be associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2026-09-07. Magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm may be expected.
Activity ID: 2026-09-06T20:40:00-IPS-001.
## Notes:
This arrival signature is still developing and analysis is ongoing.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-09-06T19:25:18Z
## Message ID: 20260906-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-09-06T10:53:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260906-AL-004). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 36 ensemble members (see notes section), 34 (94%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-09-08T09:32Z and 2026-09-09T00:13Z (average arrival 2026-09-08T17:56Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 65% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-09-06_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO101/20260906_105300_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO101_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-09-06_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO101/20260906_105300_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO101_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-09-06_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO101/20260906_105300_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO101_Earth_stack.gif
## Notes:
The CME event with ID 2026-09-06T10:53:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact Europa Clipper at 2026-09-08T13:03Z, Juice at 2026-09-09T03:09Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-09-09T01:14Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2026-09-07T17:00Z (glancing blow) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20260906-AL-004).
This CME event (2026-09-06T10:53:00-CME-001) is associated with a C5.0 flare from Active Region 14524 (N12E32) with ID 2026-09-06T10:31:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-09-06T10:42Z.
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-09-06_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO101/Detailed_results_20260906_105300_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO101.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-09-06T18:25:13Z
## Message ID: 20260906-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2026-09-06T18:05Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2026-08-31T11:20Z are likely caused by the arrival of the CME with ID 2026-08-25T10:38:00-CME-001, CME with ID 2026-08-25T12:53:00-CME-001, and/or CME with ID 2026-08-25T14:53:00-CME-001, as well as the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream which started on 2026-08-28, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 480 km/s (see notifications 20260831-AL-001, 20260831-AL-002, 20260902-AL-001, and 20260904-AL-003). The likely combined arrival of these CMEs was detected at L1 by SOLAR-1 at 2026-08-28T08:30Z. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 350 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Europa Clipper, Juice, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-09-06T16:15:26Z
## Message ID: 20260906-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: O-type CME detected by STEREO A.
Start time of the event: 2026-09-06T10:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~1085 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -32/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-09-06T10:53:00-CME-001
2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A.
Start time of the event: 2026-09-06T07:38Z.
Estimated speed: ~467 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -34/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-09-06T07:38:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Europa Clipper, Juice, OSIRIS-APEX, and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The combined leading edge of the CMEs may reach Europa Clipper at 2026-09-08T13:03Z, Juice at 2026-09-09T03:09Z, and OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-09-09T01:14Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CMEs may reach Solar Orbiter at 2026-09-07T17:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-09-08T18:41Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-09-06T10:53:00-CME-001 and 2026-09-06T07:38:00-CME-001):
The CME event with ID 2026-09-06T10:53:00-CME-001 is associated with a C5.0 flare from Active Region 14524 (N12E32) with ID 2026-09-06T10:31:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-09-06T10:42Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Europa Clipper, Juice, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-09-06T13:00:27Z
## Message ID: 20260906-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2026-09-05T11:09:00-CME-001, now simulated with CME with ID 2026-09-05T18:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20260905-AL-003, 20260905-AL-010, 20260905-AL-012, and 20260906-AL-001). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Europa Clipper Juice OSIRIS-APEX and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The combined leading edge of the CMEs may reach Europa Clipper at 2026-09-07T18:09Z, Juice at 2026-09-08T05:47Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-09-08T04:58Z (plus minus 7 hours). The combined flank of the CMEs may reach Solar Orbiter at 2026-09-06T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-09-07T20:36Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
CME parameters are:
1: Start time of the event: 2026-09-05T11:09Z.
Estimated speed: ~873 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -25/-5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-09-05T11:09:00-CME-001
2: Start time of the event: 2026-09-05T18:09Z.
Estimated speed: ~1110 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -21/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-09-05T18:09:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2026-09-05T11:09:00-CME-001 and 2026-09-05T18:09:00-CME-001):
The CME event with ID 2026-09-05T11:09:00-CME-001 is associated with a C6.4 flare from Active Region 14524 (N12E45) with ID 2026-09-05T10:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-09-05T10:45Z.
This CME event with ID 2026-09-05T18:09:00-CME-001 is associated with a C8.5 flare from Active Region 14524 (N12E42) with ID 2026-09-05T17:32:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-09-05T17:46Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-09-06T01:09:56Z
## Message ID: 20260906-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-09-05T22:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~875 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 11 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -59/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-09-05T22:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Europa Clipper (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2026-09-09T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-09-05T22:00:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-09-06T00:07:02Z
## Message ID: 20260906-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-09-05T18:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260905-AL-012). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 45 ensemble members (see notes section), 43 (95%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-09-07T17:02Z and 2026-09-08T07:12Z (average arrival 2026-09-07T23:56Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 63% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-09-05_ncmes1_sims45_M2M-SWAO100/20260905_180900_ncmes1_sims45_M2M-SWAO100_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-09-05_ncmes1_sims45_M2M-SWAO100/20260905_180900_ncmes1_sims45_M2M-SWAO100_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-09-05_ncmes1_sims45_M2M-SWAO100/20260905_180900_ncmes1_sims45_M2M-SWAO100_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-09-05_ncmes1_sims45_M2M-SWAO100/20260905_180900_ncmes1_sims45_M2M-SWAO100_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif
## Notes:
The CME event with ID 2026-09-05T18:09:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact Europa Clipper at 2026-09-07T16:44Z, Juice at 2026-09-08T08:10Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-09-08T04:10Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2026-09-06T22:00Z (glancing blow) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20260905-AL-012).
This CME event (2026-09-05T18:09:00-CME-001) is associated with C8.5 flare with ID 2026-09-05T17:32:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 14524 (N12E42) which peaked at 2026-09-05T17:46Z.
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-09-05_ncmes1_sims45_M2M-SWAO100/Detailed_results_20260905_180900_ncmes1_sims45_M2M-SWAO100.txt
