Message ID: 20250716-7D-001
Issue Time: 2025-07-16T18:53Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for July 09, 2025 - July 15, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-07-16T18:53:50Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-07-09T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-07-15T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250716-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity reached moderate levels during this reporting period with 4 M-class flares and 9 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
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2025-07-09T13:36Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-07-11T11:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250709-AL-003).
2025-07-10T20:53Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-07-13T11:30Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250711-AL-001).
2025-07-11T09:53Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-07-14T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250711-AL-002).
2025-07-12T15:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-07-13T19:00Z (minor impact), Psyche at 2025-07-19T21:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20250713-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=5.00 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.00 occurred during the synoptic period of 2025-07-15T06:00Z-09:00Z. This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was likely associated with the coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE on 2025-07-11.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold level of 1000 pfu at 2025-07-09T14:25Z (see notifications 20250709-AL-001, 20250709-AL-002). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-07-05. The energetic electron flux levels returned to nominal levels early on 2025-07-11. The >2.0 MeV energetic electron flux levels exceeded the threshold of 1000 pfu again at 2025-07-14T15:25Z (see notifications 20250714-AL-001, 20250714-AL-002, 20250716-AL-001). This subsequent elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-07-11. The energetic electron flux levels remained elevated through the end of the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2025-07-09 04:10:00 04:38:00 04:25:00 M1.3 N22E75 ( 14136 )
2025-07-12 03:53:00 04:09:00 04:02:00 M1.4 S13E76 ( 14140 )
2025-07-12 08:29:00 08:42:00 08:34:00 M2.3 S13E75 ( 14140 )
2025-07-12 11:54:00 12:16:00 12:10:00 M1.6 S15E70 ( 14140 )
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
NONE
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-07-09T12:24Z ~703 C 172/-43 22 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-07-09T13:36Z ~974 C -165/24 19 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-07-10T20:53Z ~561 C -173/-29 21 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-07-11T09:53Z ~733 C -163/-33 25 GOES, SOHO
2025-07-12T08:00Z ~595 C 66/-29 21 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-07-12T15:36Z ~924 C -53/27 20 SOHO, GOES
2025-07-13T16:12Z ~579 C NONE(POS)/40 10 SOHO
2025-07-14T01:25Z ~514 C NONE(POS)/-38 21 SOHO, GOES
2025-07-15T07:24Z ~574 C -47/54 33 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-07-16T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-07-22T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently eleven Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14140 (S15E07) produced three of the four M-class flares during the reporting period and may continue to produce similar level flaring activity as it continues to traverse the Earth-facing disk.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. The energetic electron flux levels at GOES may remain elevated above background levels during the outlook period due to the continued effects of the coronal hole high speed stream detected by L1 by DSCOVR and ACE on 2025-07-11 (see notification 20250716-AL-001).
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
Message ID: 20250716-AL-001
Issue Time: 2025-07-16T15:37Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-07-16T15:37:00Z
## Message ID: 20250716-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-07-16T10:00Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-07-14T15:25Z are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-07-11, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 730 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 530 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-07-14T15:25:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
URL: View Details
Message ID: 20250714-AL-002
Issue Time: 2025-07-14T15:52Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-07-14T15:52:41Z
## Message ID: 20250714-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-07-14T15:25Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-07-11, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 685 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 520 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-07-14T15:25:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
URL: View Details
Message ID: 20250714-AL-001
Issue Time: 2025-07-14T15:34Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-07-14T15:34:21Z
## Message ID: 20250714-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-07-14T15:25Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-07-14T15:25:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
URL: View Details