Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20260717-AL-001
Issue Time: 2026-07-17T12:25Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-17T12:25:10Z
## Message ID: 20260717-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-07-17T00:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~520 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -126/-11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-17T00:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Lucy (glancing blow) and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Lucy at 2026-08-02T02:00Z and Solar Orbiter at 2026-07-18T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-07-17T00:12:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260717_065200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260717_065200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260717_065200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260717_065200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260717_065200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260717_065200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260717_065200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
GIFs:
Message Type: RBE
Message ID: 20260716-AL-001
Issue Time: 2026-07-16T17:50Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-16T17:50:48Z
## Message ID: 20260716-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2026-07-16T17:25Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are likely caused by the combined arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2026-07-14, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 500 km/s, and the arrival of the CME with ID 2026-07-11T04:38:00-CME-001. The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 by SOLAR-1 and ACE at 2026-07-14T14:38Z. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 430 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2026-07-16T17:25:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
URL: View Details
Message Type: Report
Message ID: 20260715-7D-001
Issue Time: 2026-07-15T21:11Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for July 08, 2026 - July 14, 2026
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-15T21:11:19Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2026-07-08T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2026-07-14T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20260715-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate levels during this reporting period with 3 M-class flares and 17 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2026-07-09T07:53Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-07-12T01:38Z, Kp index 4-7 (below minor to strong)
(see notifications 20260709-AL-001, 20260709-AL-003).
Ensemble: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-09_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO092/Detailed_results_20260709_120905_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO092.txt
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2026-07-12T02:30Z.
2026-07-10T15:53Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-07-13T02:15Z, Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notifications 20260710-AL-004, 20260710-AL-005).
Ensemble: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-10_ncmes1_sims44_M2M-SWAO093/Detailed_results_20260710_155300_ncmes1_sims44_M2M-SWAO093.txt
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2026-07-13T14:39Z.
2026-07-11T04:38Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-07-14T12:00Z, Kp index 2-3 (below minor)
(see notification 20260711-AL-002).
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2026-07-14T14:38Z.
2026-07-12T01:14Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-07-15T11:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 2-3 (below minor)
(see notification 20260712-AL-002).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2026-07-08T06:45Z Mars at 2026-07-12T08:00Z (minor impact), Psyche at 2026-07-12T06:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20260708-AL-002).
2026-07-08T08:00Z Mars at 2026-07-12T08:00Z (minor impact), Psyche at 2026-07-12T06:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20260708-AL-002).
2026-07-08T10:09Z Mars at 2026-07-12T08:00Z (minor impact), Psyche at 2026-07-12T06:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20260708-AL-002).
2026-07-09T04:53Z Mars at 2026-07-13T03:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2026-07-13T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260709-AL-002).
2026-07-09T07:53Z BepiColombo at 2026-07-10T08:40Z, Juice at 2026-07-13T18:59Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-07-13T01:26Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-11T05:35Z, Europa Clipper at 2026-07-13T10:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2026-07-12T20:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20260709-AL-001, 20260709-AL-003).
2026-07-09T21:00Z Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-12T01:00Z (minor impact), STEREO A at 2026-07-13T07:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260710-AL-001).
2026-07-10T15:53Z BepiColombo at 2026-07-11T13:47Z, Juice at 2026-07-14T01:58Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-12T02:36Z, STEREO A at 2026-07-13T06:27Z, Europa Clipper at 2026-07-15T15:00Z (glancing blow), OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-07-14T06:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20260710-AL-004, 20260710-AL-005).
2026-07-11T01:23Z BepiColombo at 2026-07-12T12:00Z (glancing blow), Juice at 2026-07-15T08:00Z (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-13T02:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2026-07-14T11:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20260711-AL-001, 20260711-AL-002).
2026-07-11T04:38Z BepiColombo at 2026-07-12T12:00Z (glancing blow), Juice at 2026-07-15T08:00Z (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-13T02:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2026-07-14T11:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260711-AL-002).
2026-07-11T16:09Z Mars at 2026-07-18T00:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2026-07-17T18:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260711-AL-003).
2026-07-11T18:53Z Solar Orbiter at 2026-07-14T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260711-AL-004).
2026-07-12T01:14Z BepiColombo at 2026-07-13T09:04Z, Juice at 2026-07-16T06:00Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-14T01:49Z, STEREO A at 2026-07-15T02:36Z, Mars at 2026-07-18T02:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2026-07-18T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260712-AL-002).
2026-07-12T02:12Z Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-13T19:43Z, Juice at 2026-07-16T00:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2026-07-14T20:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260712-AL-003).
2026-07-13T02:53Z Psyche at 2026-07-19T04:00Z (minor impact), Mars at 2026-07-19T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260713-AL-001).
2026-07-13T19:36Z Solar Orbiter at 2026-07-15T10:31Z, Juno at 2026-07-30T00:00Z (minor impact) (see notifications 20260714-AL-001, 20260714-AL-002).
2026-07-14T05:36Z STEREO A at 2026-07-17T12:00Z (minor impact), Mars at 2026-07-20T06:00Z (glancing blow).
Geomagnetic activity was at below minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 4.67 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 4.67 occurred during the synoptic period of 2026-07-12T12:00Z to 2026-07-12T15:00Z. This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was likely associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by SOLAR-1 at 2026-07-12T02:30Z which was likely associated with the arrival of the C-type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-07-09T07:53Z.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold level of 1000 pfu starting at 2026-07-10T11:15Z (see notifications 20260710-AL-002, 20260710-AL-003, 20260712-AL-001, 20260713-AL-002). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by SOLAR-1 on 2026-07-09. The energetic electron flux levels remained elevated through the end of the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV proton channels at SOHO were all at near-background levels for the entire reporting period. The 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2026-07-08 17:49:00 18:01:00 17:56:00 M1.5 S09E30 ( 14482 )
2026-07-09 02:17:00 02:29:00 02:27:00 M1.1 S10E30 ( 14482 )
2026-07-12 07:17:00 08:42:00 08:11:00 M1.1 S10W73 ( 14485 )
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2026-07-09T07:53Z ~749 C 20/-8 31 STEREO A, GOES
2026-07-10T15:53Z ~959 C 33/-5 35 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2026-07-11T01:23Z ~535 C 20/33 18 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2026-07-12T01:14Z ~552 C 43/-11 42 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2026-07-08T06:45Z ~748 C 114/-8 24 GOES, STEREO A
2026-07-08T10:09Z ~531 C 121/-2 12 STEREO A, GOES
2026-07-09T04:53Z ~673 C 123/9 18 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2026-07-09T21:00Z ~636 C 50/9 12 SOHO, GOES
2026-07-10T09:48Z ~516 C 149/7 11 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-07-11T01:23Z ~535 C 20/33 18 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2026-07-11T16:09Z ~591 C 156/-4 23 STEREO A, GOES
2026-07-11T18:53Z ~656 C 160/-13 25 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-07-12T02:12Z ~934 C 46/13 17 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-07-12T15:24Z ~503 C NONE(POS)/-40 10 SOHO, GOES
2026-07-13T02:53Z ~579 C 140/-10 17 STEREO A
2026-07-13T16:12Z ~651 C NONE(POS)/29 10 SOHO, GOES
2026-07-13T19:36Z ~772 C -172/-16 21 SOHO, GOES
2026-07-14T05:36Z ~535 C 78/-14 18 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2026-07-15T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2026-07-21T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently two numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14482 (S09W67) has produced 2 M-class flares in the reporting period and may continue to produce similar levels of flaring activity during the outlook period before it rotates over the west limb on or around 2026-07-17.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. The enhanced energetic electron flux levels at GOES observed during the reporting period returned to background levels early in the outlook period on 2026-07-15.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20260715-AL-001
Issue Time: 2026-07-15T12:30Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, Psyche, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-15T12:30:27Z
## Message ID: 20260715-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-07-15T03:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~528 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 28 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 100/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-15T03:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Mars (minor impact), Psyche (minor impact), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME may reach Mars at 2026-07-20T02:00Z and Psyche at 2026-07-20T01:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach STEREO A at 2026-07-18T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-07-15T03:24:00-CME-001):
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260715_100200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260715_100200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260715_100200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260715_100200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260715_100200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260715_100200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260715_100200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260715_100200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
GIFs:
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20260714-AL-002
Issue Time: 2026-07-14T13:58Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Juno, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-14T13:58:09Z
## Message ID: 20260714-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2026-07-13T19:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260714-AL-001). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juno at 2026-07-30T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulations also estimate that the CME may affect Solar Orbiter. The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2026-07-15T10:31Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Updated CME parameters are (C-type):
Start time of the event: 2026-07-13T19:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~772 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -172/-16 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-13T19:36:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-07-13T19:36:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260713_224200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260713_224200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260713_224200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260713_224200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260713_224200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260713_224200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260713_224200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
GIFs:
