Ειδοποιήσεις από το σύστημα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης DONKI της NASA (διαστημικός καιρός, Ήλιος)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: RBE
Message ID: 20260103-AL-001
Issue Time: 2026-01-03T20:03Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-03T20:03:06Z
## Message ID: 20260103-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2026-01-03T19:20Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-12-23T08:55Z (see notifications 20251224-AL-001, 20251226-AL-002, 20251228-AL-001, 20251230-AL-003, 20260101-AL-002) are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-12-21, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 800 km/s. A subsequent coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2026-01-02 may have further enhanced the electron fluxes. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 500 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-02T12:21:11Z
## Message ID: 20260102-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260101-AL-003). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 24 ensemble members (see notes section), 21 (87%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-01-04T05:24Z and 2026-01-04T22:27Z (average arrival 2026-01-04T14:09Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 89% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-01_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091/20260101_193600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-01_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091/20260101_193600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-01_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091/20260101_193600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091_Earth_stack.gif
## Notes:
This CME event with ID 2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact
Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-04T02:20Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-04T09:00Z, STEREO A at 2026-01-04T18:00Z and Juno at 2026-01-18T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours), based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20260101-AL-003).
This CME event (2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001) is associated with C6.2 flare from Active Region 14324 (N24E01) with ID 2026-01-01T17:27:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-01-01T17:59Z.
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-01_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091/Detailed_results_20260101_193600_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA091.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-01T23:18:56Z
## Message ID: 20260101-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-01-01T19:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~628 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -9/22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (minor impact), Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juno at 2026-01-18T12:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-04T02:20Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-04T09:00Z, and STEREO A at 2026-01-04T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-01-04T14:31Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260102_010100_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001) is associated with C6.2 flare from Active Region 14324 (N24E01) with ID 2026-01-01T17:27:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-01-01T17:59Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-01T20:02:57Z
## Message ID: 20260101-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2026-01-01T14:00Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-12-23T08:55Z (see notifications 20251224-AL-001, 20251226-AL-002, 20251228-AL-001, 20251230-AL-003) are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-12-21, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 800km/s. Solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 475 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-01T01:57:13Z
## Message ID: 20260101-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-12-31T14:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20251231-AL-004). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 24 ensemble members (see notes section), 22 (91%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-01-02T14:44Z and 2026-01-03T04:25Z (average arrival 2026-01-02T21:21Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 87% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-31_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090/20251231_140000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-31_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090/20251231_140000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-31_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090/20251231_140000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-31_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090/20251231_140000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-12-31T14:00:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-02T11:21Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-02T22:00Z, STEREO A at 2026-01-03T13:00Z, and Juno at 2026-01-15T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20251231-AL-004).
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-12-31_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090/Detailed_results_20251231_140000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA090.txt
