Ειδοποιήσεις από το σύστημα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης DONKI της NASA (διαστημικός καιρός, Ήλιος)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20260711-AL-004
Issue Time: 2026-07-11T23:54Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-11T23:54:25Z
## Message ID: 20260711-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-07-11T18:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~656 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 160/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-11T18:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2026-07-14T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-07-11T18:53:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, Psyche)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-11T20:33:01Z
## Message ID: 20260711-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES.
Start time of the event: 2026-07-11T16:09Z.
Estimated speed: ~591 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 23 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 156/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-11T16:09:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Mars (glancing blow) and Psyche (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Mars at 2026-07-18T00:00Z and Psyche at 2026-07-17T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-07-11T16:09:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (BepiColombo, Juice, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-11T19:28:49Z
## Message ID: 20260711-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2026-07-11T01:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260711-AL-001), now simulated with CME with ID 2026-07-11T04:38:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect BepiColombo (glancing blow), Juice (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CMEs will reach BepiColombo at 2026-07-12T12:00Z, Juice at 2026-07-15T08:00Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-13T02:00Z, and STEREO A at 2026-07-14T11:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-07-14T11:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).
Updated CME parameters are:
1: Start time of the event: 2026-07-11T01:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~535 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 18 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 20/33 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-11T01:23:00-CME-001
2: Start time of the event: 2026-07-11T04:38Z.
Estimated speed: ~488 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 22/38 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-11T04:38:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2026-07-11T01:23:00-CME-001, 2026-07-11T04:38:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Juice, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-11T17:44:43Z
## Message ID: 20260711-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-07-11T01:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~535 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 18 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 20/33 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-11T01:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo (glancing blow), Juice (glancing blow), and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2026-07-12T12:00Z, Juice at 2026-07-15T21:00Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-13T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-07-11T01:23:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-10T23:16:31Z
## Message ID: 20260710-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-07-10T15:53:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260710-AL-004). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 44 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:
- STEREO A between about 2026-07-13T03:43Z and 2026-07-13T15:21Z (average arrival 2026-07-13T11:26Z) for 88% of simulations.
Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-07-12T20:22Z and 2026-07-13T14:12Z (average arrival 2026-07-13T04:09Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 61% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-10_ncmes1_sims44_M2M-SWAO093/20260710_155300_ncmes1_sims44_M2M-SWAO093_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-10_ncmes1_sims44_M2M-SWAO093/20260710_155300_ncmes1_sims44_M2M-SWAO093_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-10_ncmes1_sims44_M2M-SWAO093/20260710_155300_ncmes1_sims44_M2M-SWAO093_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-10_ncmes1_sims44_M2M-SWAO093/20260710_155300_ncmes1_sims44_M2M-SWAO093_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-10_ncmes1_sims44_M2M-SWAO093/20260710_155300_ncmes1_sims44_M2M-SWAO093_STA_stack.gif
## Notes:
The CME event with ID 2026-07-10T15:53:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact BepiColombo at 2026-07-11T13:47Z, Juice at 2026-07-14T01:58Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-12T02:36Z, Europa Clipper at 2026-07-15T15:00Z (glancing blow) and OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-07-14T06:00Z (glancing blow) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20260710-AL-004).
This CME event (2026-07-10T15:53:00-CME-001) is associated with a C6.0 flare from Active Region 14485 (S16W47) with ID 2026-07-10T14:33:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-07-10T14:59Z.
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-10_ncmes1_sims44_M2M-SWAO093/Detailed_results_20260710_155300_ncmes1_sims44_M2M-SWAO093.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Juice, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Europa Clipper, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-10T19:34:05Z
## Message ID: 20260710-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-07-10T15:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~959 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 33/-5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-10T15:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, Juice, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2026-07-11T13:47Z, Juice at 2026-07-14T01:58Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-12T02:36Z, and STEREO A at 2026-07-13T06:27Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2026-07-15T15:00Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-07-14T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-07-13T02:15Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-07-10T15:53:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2026-07-10T15:53:00-CME-001) is associated with C6.0 flare from Active Region 14485 (S16W47) with ID 2026-07-10T14:33:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-07-10T14:59Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-10T11:31:07Z
## Message ID: 20260710-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2026-07-10T11:15Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream which started on 2026-07-09, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 640 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 600 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-10T11:22:38Z
## Message ID: 20260710-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2026-07-10T11:15Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-10T02:04:20Z
## Message ID: 20260710-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-07-09T21:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~636 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 12 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 50/9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-09T21:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Parker Solar Probe (minor impact) and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME may reach Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-12T01:00Z and the flank of the CME may reach STEREO A at 2026-07-13T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-07-09T21:00:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-09T22:13:50Z
## Message ID: 20260709-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-07-09T07:53:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260709-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 42 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:
- STEREO A between about 2026-07-12T09:00Z and 2026-07-12T11:42Z (average arrival 2026-07-12T10:38Z) for 7% of simulations.
Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-07-11T17:51Z and 2026-07-12T01:42Z (average arrival 2026-07-11T21:18Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 96% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-09_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO092/20260709_120905_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO092_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-09_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO092/20260709_120905_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO092_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-09_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO092/20260709_120905_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO092_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-09_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO092/20260709_120905_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO092_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-09_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO092/20260709_120905_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO092_STA_stack.gif
## Notes:
The CME event with ID 2026-07-09T07:53:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact BepiColombo at 2026-07-10T08:40Z, Juice at 2026-07-13T18:59Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-11T05:35Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-07-13T01:26Z (glancing blow), and Europa Clipper at 2026-07-13T10:00Z (glancing blow) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20260709-AL-001).
This CME event (2026-07-09T07:53:00-CME-001) is associated with C2.7 flare from Active Region 14485 (S10W31) with ID 2026-07-09T06:51:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-07-09T07:13Z.
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-09_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO092/Detailed_results_20260709_120905_ncmes1_sims42_M2M-SWAO092.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, Psyche)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-09T19:32:52Z
## Message ID: 20260709-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-07-09T04:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~673 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 18 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 123/9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-09T04:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Mars (glancing blow) and Psyche (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Mars at 2026-07-13T03:00Z and Psyche at 2026-07-13T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-07-09T04:53:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Juice, OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe, Europa Clipper, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-09T14:09:14Z
## Message ID: 20260709-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES.
Start time of the event: 2026-07-09T07:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~749 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 20/-8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-09T07:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, Juice, OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2026-07-10T08:40Z, Juice at 2026-07-13T18:59Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-11T05:35Z, and the flank may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-07-13T01:26Z, Europa Clipper at 2026-07-13T10:00Z, and STEREO A at 2026-07-12T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-07-12T01:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-7 (below minor to strong).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-07-09T07:53:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2026-07-09T07:53:00-CME-001) is associated with C2.7 flare from Active Region 14485 (S10W31) with ID 2026-07-09T06:51:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-07-09T07:13Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
