Ειδοποιήσεις από το σύστημα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης DONKI της NASA (διαστημικός καιρός, Ήλιος)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20260111-AL-001
Issue Time: 2026-01-11T03:34Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-11T03:34:08Z
## Message ID: 20260111-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-01-10T20:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~809 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 23 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 3/-29 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-01-10T20:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-13T08:00Z, Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-13T01:00Z, and STEREO A at 2026-01-14T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-01-13T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-01-10T20:48:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2026-01-10T20:48:00-CME-001) is associated with C2.1 flare from AR 14339 (S16W04) with ID 2026-01-10T19:31:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-01-10T19:42Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-10T21:19:32Z
## Message ID: 20260110-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2026-01-10T18:00Z to 2026-01-10T21:00Z.
The storm is caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2026-01-10T19:36:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20260110-AL-003) and the arrival of CME with ID 2026-01-08T05:53:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20260108-AL-001 and 20260109-AL-002) and/or combined arrival of CME with ID 2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20260109-AL-001, 20260109-AL-003), CME with ID 2026-01-08T17:12:00-CME-001 (see notification 20260109-AL-003) and CME with ID 2026-01-08T15:48:00-CME-001 (see notification 20260109-AL-003).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-10T21:05:28Z
## Message ID: 20260110-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2026-01-10T18:00Z to 2026-01-10T21:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-10T20:12:19Z
## Message ID: 20260110-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by ACE at L1 at 2026-01-10T19:36Z.
The shock is likely caused by the arrival of CME with ID 2026-01-08T05:53:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20260108-AL-001 and 20260109-AL-002) and/or combined arrival of CME with ID 2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20260109-AL-001, 20260109-AL-003), CME with ID 2026-01-08T17:12:00-CME-001 (see notification 20260109-AL-003) and CME with ID 2026-01-08T15:48:00-CME-001 (see notification 20260109-AL-003).
Some magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm are likely. This arrival signature is still developing.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-10T15:41:29Z
## Message ID: 20260110-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2026-01-10T15:10Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream which started on 2026-01-09, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 560 km/s, preceded by the arrival of the CME with ID 2026-01-06T02:00:00-CME-001 (see notification 20260106-AL-001). The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2026-01-08T04:57Z. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 460 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-10T15:17:41Z
## Message ID: 20260110-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2026-01-10T15:10Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Juno, Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-09T19:01:22Z
## Message ID: 20260109-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001, now modeled with CMEs with IDs 2026-01-08T15:48:00-CME-001 and 2026-01-08T17:12:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Solar Orbiter and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-10T10:52Z and Juno at 2026-01-23T00:00Z, and the flank may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-11T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-01-10T21:19Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
Updated parameters for CME with ID 2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001:
1: Start time of the event: 2026-01-08T17:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~924 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -7/-35 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001
CME parameters for two other CMEs are (C-type):
2: Start time of the event: 2026-01-08T17:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~1084 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -17/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-01-08T17:12:00-CME-001
3: Start time of the event: 2026-01-08T15:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~872 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 16 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -30/-1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-01-08T15:48:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2026-01-08T15:48:00-CME-001, 2026-01-08T17:12:00-CME-001, 2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_192700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME events (2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001) is associated with C5.6 flare with ID 2026-01-08T16:18:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 14334 (S19E03), which peaked at 2026-01-08T17:30Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-09T03:34:46Z
## Message ID: 20260109-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-01-08T05:53:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260108-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 32 ensemble members (see notes section), 30 (93%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-01-10T03:33Z and 2026-01-10T19:04Z (average arrival 2026-01-10T09:55Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 74% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-08_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA092/20260108_055300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA092_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-08_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA092/20260108_055300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA092_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-08_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA092/20260108_055300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA092_Earth_stack.gif
## Notes:
This CME event with ID 2026-01-08T05:53:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-09T23:52Z, Juno at 2026-01-23T00:00Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-10T08:00Z, and STEREO A at 2026-01-11T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours), based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20260108-AL-001).
This CME event (2026-01-08T05:53:00-CME-001) is associated with C4.4 flare from Active Region 14334 (S18E05) with ID 2026-01-08T05:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-01-08T05:42Z.
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-01-08_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA092/Detailed_results_20260108_055300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA092.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-09T00:00:43Z
## Message ID: 20260109-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-01-08T17:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~878 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -6/-27 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (minor impact), OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juno at 2026-01-22T20:00Z, Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-10T08:57Z, and its flank will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-10T16:09Z and STEREO A at 2026-01-11T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-01-10T20:04Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_205100_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_205100_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_205100_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001) is associated with C5.6 flare with ID 2026-01-08T16:18:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 14334 (S19E03) which peaked at 2026-01-08T17:30Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Mars, Parker Solar Probe, Psyche)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-08T14:58:21Z
## Message ID: 20260108-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES.
Start time of the event: 2026-01-08T10:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~1284 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 51 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -173/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-01-08T10:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo, Mars, Parker Solar Probe, and Psyche. The leading edge of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2026-01-09T03:37Z, Mars at 2026-01-10T19:14Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-01-09T08:16Z, and Psyche at 2026-01-11T06:37Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-01-08T10:23:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-01-08T14:30:14Z
## Message ID: 20260108-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-01-08T05:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~1016 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -10/-35 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-01-08T05:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME may reach Solar Orbiter at 2026-01-09T23:52Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach Juno at 2026-01-23T00:00Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-01-10T08:00Z, and STEREO A at 2026-01-11T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-01-10T09:48Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-01-08T05:53:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260108_084900_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2026-01-08T05:53:00-CME-001) is associated with C4.4 flare from Active Region 14334 (S18E05) with ID 2026-01-08T05:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-01-08T05:42Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
