Ειδοποιήσεις από το σύστημα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης DONKI της NASA (διαστημικός καιρός, Ήλιος)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20260722-AL-001
Issue Time: 2026-07-22T22:36Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-22T22:36:04Z
## Message ID: 20260722-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-07-21T15:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260721-AL-004). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 35 ensemble members (see notes section), 24 (68%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-07-23T19:55Z and 2026-07-24T05:34Z (average arrival 2026-07-24T01:10Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 57% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor to below minor).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-22_ncmes1_sims35_M2M-SWAO094/20260721_165500_ncmes1_sims35_M2M-SWAO094_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-22_ncmes1_sims35_M2M-SWAO094/20260721_165500_ncmes1_sims35_M2M-SWAO094_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-22_ncmes1_sims35_M2M-SWAO094/20260721_165500_ncmes1_sims35_M2M-SWAO094_Earth_stack.gif
## Notes:
The CME event with ID 2026-07-21T15:12:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact BepiColombo at 2026-07-22T09:07Z, Juice at 2026-07-24T13:26Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-23T01:36Z, Europa Clipper at 2026-07-26T00:00Z (glancing blow) and OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-07-24T22:00Z (glancing blow) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20260721-AL-004).
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-22_ncmes1_sims35_M2M-SWAO094/Detailed_results_20260721_165500_ncmes1_sims35_M2M-SWAO094.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for July 15, 2026 - July 21, 2026
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-22T19:29:40Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2026-07-15T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2026-07-21T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20260722-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate levels during this reporting period with 4 M-class flares and 16 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2026-07-20T19:53Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-07-23T07:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notification 20260721-AL-001).
2026-07-21T15:12Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-07-23T19:02Z, Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20260721-AL-004).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2026-07-15T03:24Z Mars at 2026-07-20T02:00Z (minor impact), Psyche at 2026-07-20T01:00Z (minor impact), STEREO A at 2026-07-18T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260715-AL-001).
2026-07-17T00:12Z Solar Orbiter at 2026-07-18T21:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2026-08-02T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260717-AL-001).
2026-07-17T18:00Z Mars at 2026-07-22T15:31Z, Psyche at 2026-07-22T10:46Z (see notification 20260717-AL-002).
2026-07-19T15:48Z Psyche at 2026-07-24T00:50Z, Mars at 2026-07-24T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260719-AL-002).
2026-07-20T02:24Z Mars at 2026-07-25T06:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2026-07-24T18:00Z (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter at 2026-07-22T04:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260720-AL-001).
2026-07-20T05:48Z Psyche at 2026-07-25T18:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260720-AL-002).
2026-07-20T10:23Z Psyche at 2026-07-25T04:00Z (minor impact), Mars at 2026-07-26T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260720-AL-003).
2026-07-20T19:53Z Europa Clipper at 2026-07-24T18:00Z (glancing blow), OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-07-24T06:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260721-AL-001).
2026-07-21T06:23Z Psyche at 2026-07-26T18:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260721-AL-003).
2026-07-21T07:48Z STEREO A at 2026-07-24T12:00Z (glancing blow).
2026-07-21T15:12Z BepiColombo at 2026-07-22T09:07Z, Juice at 2026-07-24T13:26Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-23T01:36Z, Europa Clipper at 2026-07-26T00:00Z (glancing blow), OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-07-24T22:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260721-AL-004).
Geomagnetic activity was at below minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 3.67 for the reporting period.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold level of 1000 pfu starting at 2026-07-16T17:25Z (see notifications 20260716-AL-001, 20260718-AL-001, 20260720-AL-004). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of the S-Type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-07-11T04:38Z and the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by SOLAR-1 on 2026-07-14. The energetic electron flux returned to background levels on 2026-07-21.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES, the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV proton channels at SOHO, and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2026-07-20T19:53Z ~579 C -9/14 10 STEREO A
2026-07-21T15:12Z ~977 C 11/27 25 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2026-07-15T03:24Z ~528 C 100/-6 28 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-07-17T00:12Z ~520 C -126/-11 31 SOHO, STEREO A
2026-07-17T18:00Z ~833 C 127/-16 22 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-07-19T15:48Z ~592 C 126/3 28 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-07-19T23:00Z ~684 C NONE(POS)/26 10 SOHO, GOES
2026-07-20T02:24Z ~587 C 155/-13 39 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-07-20T05:48Z ~585 C 151/-20 24 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-07-20T10:23Z ~545 C 130/-6 31 STEREO A, GOES
2026-07-20T12:36Z ~505 C -70/20 14 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-07-20T16:48Z ~631 C 107/-39 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-07-20T20:12Z ~570 C -42/33 12 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-07-20T21:12Z ~728 C NONE(POS)/-11 12 SOHO, GOES
2026-07-21T06:23Z ~658 C 148/22 25 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2026-07-21T07:48Z ~601 C 61/38 24 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2026-07-22T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2026-07-28T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently four numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14493 (N05W15) has produced M-class flaring activity in the reporting period and outlook period and may continue to produce similar levels of flaring activity during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. Potential increases in geomagnetic activity may be associated with the anticipated arrival of the C-Type CME first observed in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2026-07-21T15:12Z, predicted to impact missions near Earth around 2026-07-23T19:02Z (plus/minus 7 hours) (see notification 20260721-AL-004). A coronal hole centered around S25W45 (as seen in available imagery from SDO/AIA 193) has likely been detected at L1 by SOLAR-1 on 2026-07-21 and may continue to have influence into the first half of the outlook period.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Juice, Parker Solar Probe, Europa Clipper, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-21T23:03:04Z
## Message ID: 20260721-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-07-21T15:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~977 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 11/27 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-21T15:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, Juice, Parker Solar Probe, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2026-07-22T09:07Z, Juice at 2026-07-24T13:26Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-23T01:36Z. The flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2026-07-26T00:00Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-07-24T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-07-23T19:02Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-07-21T15:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-21T15:35:01Z
## Message ID: 20260721-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-07-21T06:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~658 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 148/22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-21T06:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Psyche at 2026-07-26T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-07-21T06:23:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-21T11:56:22Z
## Message ID: 20260721-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by SOLAR-1 at L1 at 2026-07-21T10:05Z.
The cause of this event is under analysis and may be associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream. Some magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm possible.
Activity ID: 2026-07-21T10:05:00-IPS-001.
## Notes:
This arrival signature is still developing.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-21T00:08:26Z
## Message ID: 20260721-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A.
Start time of the event: 2026-07-20T19:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~579 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -9/14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-20T19:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Europa Clipper (glancing blow) and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2026-07-24T18:00Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-07-24T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-07-23T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-07-20T19:53:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2026-07-20T19:53:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.1 flare from AR 14493 ( N06E09) with ID 2026-07-20T19:15:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-07-20T19:20Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-20T17:54:32Z
## Message ID: 20260720-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2026-07-20T17:15Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2026-07-16T17:25Z are caused by the combined arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2026-07-14, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 500 km/s, and the arrival of the CME with ID 2026-07-11T04:38:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20260716-AL-001 and 20260718-AL-001). The arrival of this CME was detected at L1 by SOLAR-1 and ACE at 2026-07-14T14:38Z (see notification 20260714-AL-003). The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 350 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, Mars)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-20T13:41:02Z
## Message ID: 20260720-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES.
Start time of the event: 2026-07-20T10:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~545 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 130/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-20T10:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (minor impact) and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2026-07-25T04:00Z and the flank will reach Mars at 2026-07-26T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-07-20T10:23:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-20T13:39:59Z
## Message ID: 20260720-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-07-20T05:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~585 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 151/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-20T05:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Psyche at 2026-07-25T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-07-20T05:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, Psyche, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-07-20T11:52:25Z
## Message ID: 20260720-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-07-20T02:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~587 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 155/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-07-20T02:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Mars (glancing blow), Psyche (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Mars at 2026-07-25T06:00Z, Psyche at 2026-07-24T18:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2026-07-22T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-07-20T02:24:00-CME-001):
