Message Type: Report
Message ID: 20260805-7D-001
Issue Time: 2026-08-05T20:43Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for July 29, 2026 - August 04, 2026
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-08-05T20:43:35Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2026-07-29T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2026-08-04T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20260805-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate levels during this reporting period with 1 M-class flare and 6 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2026-07-30T16:53Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-08-02T03:16Z, Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notifications 20260730-AL-004, 20260730-AL-007, 20260731-AL-001, 20260731-AL-002).
Ensemble: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-07-30_ncmes1_sims35_M2M-SWAO096/Detailed_results_20260730_191600_ncmes1_sims35_M2M-SWAO096.txt
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2026-08-02T11:28Z.
2026-08-04T11:23Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-08-08T12:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 2-3 (below minor)
(see notification 20260804-AL-001).
2026-08-04T13:23Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-08-08T10:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 2-3 (below minor)
(see notification 20260804-AL-002).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2026-07-30T16:53Z BepiColombo at 2026-07-31T08:51Z, Juice at 2026-08-02T19:28Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-08-01T04:33Z, STEREO A at 2026-08-01T21:58Z, Mars at 2026-08-04T02:00Z (glancing blow), OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-08-03T10:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2026-08-04T03:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20260730-AL-004, 20260730-AL-007, 20260731-AL-001, 20260731-AL-002).
2026-07-31T03:08Z Psyche at 2026-08-04T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260731-AL-004).
2026-07-31T23:00Z Solar Orbiter at 2026-08-02T04:03Z (see notification 20260801-AL-001).
2026-08-04T11:23Z Europa Clipper at 2026-08-09T06:00Z (glancing blow), OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-08-09T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260804-AL-001).
2026-08-04T13:23Z Parker Solar Probe at 2026-08-06T22:36Z, Juice at 2026-08-09T08:00Z (minor impact), BepiColombo at 2026-08-05T16:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2026-08-07T14:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260804-AL-002).
Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=5.67 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.67 occurred during synoptic period 2026-08-02T15:00Z to 2026-08-02T18:00Z (see notifications 20260802-AL-003, 20260802-AL-004). This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with an interplanetary shock detected at L1 by SOLAR-1 at 2026-08-02T11:28Z which was associated with the arrival of the C-type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-07-30T16:53Z (see notification 20260802-AL-001). Simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 2026-08-02T16:12Z (see notification 20260802-AL-002).
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold level of 1000 pfu starting at 2026-08-01T15:40Z (see notifications 20260801-AL-002, 20260801-AL-003). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of the C-Type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-07-24T04:38Z in the previous reporting period. The energetic electron flux returned to background levels on 2026-08-02.
A solar energetic particle event was detected at SOHO and GOES during the reporting period. At GOES, the flux of the >100 MeV protons exceeded 1 pfu starting at 2026-07-30T18:25Z (see notification 20260730-AL-002, 20260730-AL-003) and the flux of the > 10 MeV protons exceeded 10 pfu starting at 2026-07-30T18:45Z (see notifications 20260730-AL-005, 20260730-AL-006, 20260731-AL-003). At SOHO, the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2026-07-30T20:52Z (see notification 20260730-AL-008). At STEREO A, the flux of the 13-100 MeV protons was elevated but below threshold starting on 2026-07-30 and returned to near background by 2026-08-02. This SEP event and enhancement at STEREO A were associated with the C-type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-07-30T16:53Z which was associated with the M1.9 flare peaking at 2026-07-30T17:00Z from Active Region 14492 (N16W65). The integral flux of the >100 MeV protons at GOES returned to near background levels by 2026-07-31. The integral flux of the >10 MeV protons at GOES and the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels at SOHO returned to near background levels by 2026-08-03.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate to high this reporting period due to the solar energetic particle event and elevated energetic electron flux in the Earths outer radiation belt described above.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2026-07-30 15:53:00 17:56:00 17:00:00 M1.9 N16W65 ( 14492 )
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2026-07-30T16:53Z ~930 C 43/26 49 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2026-08-04T11:23Z ~527 C -17/-31 18 STEREO A, GOES
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2026-07-30T23:37Z ~705 C NONE(POS)/22 25 SOHO, GOES
2026-07-31T02:24Z ~564 C NONE(POS)/17 10 SOHO, GOES
2026-07-31T03:08Z ~656 C 135/26 19 STEREO A
2026-07-31T23:00Z ~949 C -166/9 25 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2026-08-05T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2026-08-11T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently six numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at low levels during the outlook period. A small coronal hole centered around S24W05 (as seen in available imagery from SDO/AIA 193) may reach geoeffective longitudes on or around 2026-08-07.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20260804-AL-002
Issue Time: 2026-08-04T18:21Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, Juice, BepiColombo, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-08-04T18:21:26Z
## Message ID: 20260804-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
S-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES.
Start time of the event: 2026-08-04T13:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~487 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 43 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 34/40 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-08-04T13:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, Juice (minor impact), BepiColombo (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2026-08-06T22:36Z and Juice at 2026-08-09T08:00Z. The flank of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2026-08-05T16:00Z and STEREO A at 2026-08-07T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-08-08T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-08-04T13:23:00-CME-001):
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_202400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
GIFs:
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20260804-AL-001
Issue Time: 2026-08-04T17:32Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-08-04T17:32:36Z
## Message ID: 20260804-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES.
Start time of the event: 2026-08-04T11:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~527 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 18 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -17/-31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-08-04T11:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Europa Clipper (glancing blow) and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2026-08-09T06:00Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-08-09T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-08-08T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-08-04T11:23:00-CME-001):
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_190500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_190500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_190500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_190500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260804_190500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
GIFs:
