Ειδοποιήσεις από το σύστημα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης DONKI της NASA (διαστημικός καιρός, Ήλιος)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: IPS
Message ID: 20241006-AL-001
Issue Time: 2024-10-06T12:42Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-06T12:42:37Z
## Message ID: 20241006-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by DSCOVR at L1 at 2024-10-06T06:55Z.
The shock is caused by CME with ID 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241003-AL-004). Strong magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm conditions are possible.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Mars, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth, Dawn)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-04T23:06:57Z
## Message ID: 20241004-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20241004-AL-001) now simulated with the CME with ID 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001.
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the combined front of the two CMEs may affect Dawn (glancing blow), Mars, STEREO A, and Lucy (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Mars at 2024-10-07T13:49Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-06T07:57Z, while the flank of the 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001 will reach Dawn at 2024-10-16T13:00Z and the flank of the 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001 CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-07T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. The combined front of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-06T19:18Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
CME parameters are:
1: C-type CME with the start time 2024-10-03T20:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~646 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 51/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001
2: C-type CME with the start time 2024-10-04T04:13Z.
Estimated speed: ~832 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 22/-19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001, 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
## Notes:
The CME with ID 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M6.7 flare from Active Region 13843 (S10W47) with ID 2024-10-03T20:09:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-03T20:28Z (see notifications 20241003-AL-005, 20241003-AL-006).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-04T00:32:20Z
## Message ID: 20241004-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-03T20:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~646 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 51/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2024-10-07T17:04Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-06T12:02Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-07T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M6.7 flare from Active Region 13843 (S10W47) with ID 2024-10-03T20:09:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-03T20:28Z (see notifications 20241003-AL-005, 20241003-AL-006).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-03T22:20:44Z
## Message ID: 20241003-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-03T13:27Z.
Estimated speed: ~706 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 36 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -62/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-03T13:27:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Lucy and Solar Orbiter. The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-06T07:44Z and Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-04T07:02Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-03T13:27:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M6.7 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-03T20:36:40Z
## Message ID: 20241003-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-10-03T20:09Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-10-03T20:23Z.
Flare intensity: M6.7 class.
Source region: S10W47 (Active Region 13843) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-03T20:27:44Z
## Message ID: 20241003-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-10-03T20:23Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Lucy, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-03T17:08:34Z
## Message ID: 20241003-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-03T12:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~822 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 3/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), Lucy, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-06T03:54Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-05T22:13Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2024-10-17T00:00Z and Mars at 2024-10-07T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-06T03:43Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001) is associated with X9.0 flare from Active Region 3842 (S15W05) with ID 2024-10-03T12:08:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-03T12:18Z (see notifications 20241003-AL-001, 20241003-AL-002).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-03T13:17:36Z
## Message ID: 20241003-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20241002-AL-001 and 20241002-AL-002).
Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 42 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:
- STEREO A between about 2024-10-04T08:14Z and 2024-10-04T20:50Z (average arrival 2024-10-04T14:42Z) for 50% of simulations.
Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-10-04T12:25Z and 2024-10-05T07:13Z (average arrival 2024-10-04T21:10Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is an 83% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071_STA_stack.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact Lucy at 2024-10-04T19:43Z and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow) at 2024-10-03T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20241002-AL-002).
This CME event (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001) is associated with X7.1 flare with ID 2024-10-01T21:58:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13942 (S17E18) which peaked at 2024-10-01T22:20Z (see notifications 20241001-AL-003 and 20241001-AL-004).
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/Detailed_results_20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X9.0 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-03T12:31:54Z
## Message ID: 20241003-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-10-03T12:08Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-10-03T12:18Z.
Flare intensity: X9.0 class.
Source region: S15W05 (Active Region 13842) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-03T12:19:58Z
## Message ID: 20241003-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-10-03T12:15Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for September 25, 2024 - October 01, 2024
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-02T20:35:20Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2024-09-25T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2024-10-01T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20241002-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate to high levels during this reporting period with 1 X-class flare, 8 M-class flares, 2 O-type CMEs, and 7 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the leading edge of a C-type CME first visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 2024-10-01T23:09Z associated with an X7.1 flare from Active Region 13842 (S17E18) which peaked at 2024-10-01T22:20Z (see notifications 20241001-AL-003 and 20241001-AL-004) will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-04T20:40Z (plus minus 7 hours) with a possible Kp index of 4-6 (below minor to moderate) (see notifications 20241002-AL-001 and 20241002-AL-002). An ensemble simulation for this event is currently in progress.
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-09-27T09:24Z Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-28T08:06Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-09-29T17:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20240927-AL-001).
2024-09-29T06:00Z Mars at 2024-10-02T20:44Z, STEREO A at 2024-10-01T05:00Z (minor impact), Juno at 2024-10-14T00:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20240929-AL-002).
2024-09-29T08:36Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-01T06:19Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-30T04:07Z (see notification 20240929-AL-001).
2024-09-30T03:12Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-01T19:03Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-30T20:56Z (see notification 20240930-AL-001).
2024-09-30T05:36Z Mars at 2024-10-03T14:32Z, STEREO A at 2024-10-02T13:30Z (glancing blow), Juno at 2024-10-15T00:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20241001-AL-002)
2024-09-30T07:12Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-01T19:40Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-30T21:16Z.
2024-09-30T16:12Z Mars at 2024-10-03T14:32Z, STEREO A at 2024-10-02T13:30Z (glancing blow), Juno at 2024-10-15T00:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20241001-AL-002).
2024-10-01T23:09Z Lucy at 2024-10-04T19:43Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-03T00:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2024-10-04T16:30Z (glancing blow) (see notfication 20241002-AL-002)
Geomagnetic activity reached minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=5.00 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp=5.00 occurred during the synoptic period of 2024-09-25T03:00Z to 2024-09-25T06:00Z and was associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2024-09-24 in the previous reporting period, which reached a maximum sustained speed of approximately 550 km/s.
During the beginning of the reporting period, the >2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt briefly crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2024-09-26T15:05Z (see notifications 20240926-AL-001 and 20240926-AL-002). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the previously mentioned coronal hole high speed stream arrival detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2024-09-24. The energetic electron flux levels subsided towards background levels on 2024-09-27 and remained at or slightly above background levels during the remainder of the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES, the >15.8 MeV protons at SOHO/ACE, and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
Earth directed:
2024-10-01T23:09Z ~594 C -19/-10 38 STEREO A, SOHO
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-09-27T09:24Z ~515 C -88/-12 25 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-29T06:00Z ~1148 O 46/-14 19 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-29T08:36Z ~503 C -119/15 39 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-30T03:12Z ~637 C -131/9 40 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-30T07:12Z ~556 C -107/8 17 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-30T14:12Z ~589 C -44/-53 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-30T16:12Z ~1066 O 56/-16 29 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-01T01:25Z ~566 C 69/-25 11 SOHO, STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2024-10-02T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2024-10-08T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between moderate and high levels during the outlook period. There are currently 10 numbered Active Regions on the Earth facing disk. Most notably, Active Region 13842 (S15E09) produced 4 M-class flares as well as an X7.1 flare during the reporting period and may continue to produce notable flares throughout the outlook period. Additionally, Active Regions 13843 (S08W20) and 13839 (S14W03) also produced M-class flares during this reporting period and may exhibit similar behavior during the outlook period. Two newly numbered Active Regions, 13841 (N13W06) and 13848 (N14E77), have produced M-class flares during the outlook period and may be the source for additional notable flaring.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. A below minor to moderate enhancement in geomagnetic activity may be observed on or around 2024-10-04 due to the anticipated arrival of a C-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-10-01T23:09Z (see notifications 20241002-AL-001 and 20241002-AL-002).
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Lucy, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-02T13:17:33Z
## Message ID: 20241002-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20241002-AL-001). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Solar Orbiter (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME may reach Lucy at 2024-10-04T19:43Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-03T00:00Z, and STEREO A at 2024-10-04T16:30Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-04T20:40Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Updated CME parameters are (event upgraded to C-type):
Start time of the event: 2024-10-01T23:09Z.
Estimated speed: ~594 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -19/-10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001) is associated with X7.1 flare with ID 2024-10-01T21:58:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13942 (S17E18) which peaked at 2024-10-01T22:20Z (see notifications 20241001-AL-003 and 20241001-AL-004).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-02T02:15:47Z
## Message ID: 20241002-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-01T23:09Z.
Estimated speed: ~487 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -17/-5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-05T01:14Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-04T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-05T03:32Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001) is associated with X7.1 flare with ID 2024-10-01T21:58:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-01T22:20Z (see notifications 20241001-AL-003, 20241001-AL-004). This CME is still in progress and arrival times are based on preliminary data. Updates will be provided when available.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X7.1 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-01T22:33:08Z
## Message ID: 20241001-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-10-01T21:58Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-10-01T22:20Z.
Flare intensity: X7.1 class.
Source region: S17W18 (Active Region 13842) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-01T22:15:45Z
## Message ID: 20241001-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-10-01T22:11Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Juno, Mars, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-01T01:20:50Z
## Message ID: 20241001-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-30T16:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~1066 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 56/-16 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-30T16:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (minor impact), Mars, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Juno at 2024-10-15T00:00Z, Mars at 2024-10-03T14:32Z, and the flank of the CME may reach STEREO A at 2024-10-02T13:30Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-09-30T05:36:00-CME-001, 2024-09-30T16:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M7.6 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-01T00:16:18Z
## Message ID: 20241001-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-09-30T23:37Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-09-30T23:59Z.
Flare intensity: M7.6 class.
Source region: S18E30 (Active Region 13842) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-30T23:57:30Z
## Message ID: 20240930-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-09-30T23:53Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-30T15:04:33Z
## Message ID: 20240930-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-30T03:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~637 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -131/9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-30T03:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX and Solar Orbiter. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-01T19:03Z and Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-30T20:56Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-30T03:12:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240930_084200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240930_084200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240930_084200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240930_084200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240930_084200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240930_084200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240930_084200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Mars, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-29T16:11:15Z
## Message ID: 20240929-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-29T06:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~1148 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 19 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 46/-14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-29T06:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (minor impact), Mars, and STEREO A (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juno at 2024-10-14T00:00Z, Mars at 2024-10-02T20:44Z, and STEREO A at 2024-10-01T05:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-29T06:00:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240929_084200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240929_084200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240929_084200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-09-29T06:00:00-CME-001) may be associated with C5.0 flare near the vicinity of Active Region 13834 (S25W35) with ID 2024-09-29T05:26:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-09-29T06:11Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-29T13:34:56Z
## Message ID: 20240929-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-29T08:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~503 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -119/15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-29T08:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX and Solar Orbiter. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-01T06:19Z and Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-30T04:07Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-29T08:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-27T12:31:15Z
## Message ID: 20240927-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-27T09:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~515 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -88/-12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-27T09:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Solar Orbiter and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-28T08:06Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-09-29T17:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-27T09:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-26T15:25:39Z
## Message ID: 20240926-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2024-09-26T15:05Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are likely caused by a coronal hole high speed stream which arrived on 2024-09-24, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 550 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR is currently around 380 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-26T15:13:35Z
## Message ID: 20240926-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2024-09-26T15:05Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for September 18, 2024 - September 24, 2024
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-25T19:48:24Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2024-09-18T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2024-09-24T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20240925-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was between low and moderate levels during this reporting period with 2 M-class flares, 1 O-type CME, and 10 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the flank of the O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-09-22T21:36Z associated with the M3.7 flare peaking at 2024-09-22T21:39Z from Active Region 13835 (S23E65) would reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-09-25T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) with possible Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor) (see notifications 20240922-AL-001 and 20240922-AL-002).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-09-18T12:36Z Lucy at 2024-09-21T10:00Z (minor impact).
2024-09-22T21:36Z Lucy at 2024-09-25T10:00Z (minor impact) and STEREO A at 2024-09-26T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20240922-AL-002).
Geomagnetic activity reached minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=4.67 for the reporting period. The first value of Kp=4.67 occurred during the synoptic period 2024-09-19T00:00Z-03:00Z. The second value of Kp=4.67 occurred during the synoptic period of 2024-09-24T21:00Z to 2024-09-25T00:00Z and was associated with the coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2024-09-24, reaching a maximum sustained speed of approximately 550 km/s.
The >2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2024-09-19T16:50Z (see notifications 20240919-AL-001, 20240919-AL-002, 20240921-AL-001, and 20240923-AL-001). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the arrival of the O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-09-14T15:36Z detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2024-09-16T22:49Z during the previous reporting period. The energetic electron flux levels subsided to background levels on 2024-09-24.
The energetic proton fluxes at GOES and SOHO remained elevated at the beginning of the reporting period due to a prior solar energetic particle event first detected in the previous reporting period at GOES around 2024-09-17T07:35Z (see notifications 20240917-AL-002 and 20240917-AL-003) and at SOHO around 2024-09-17T04:40Z (see notifications 20240917-AL-004 and 20240917-AL-006). The particle environment at GOES was enhanced but below threshold at the beginning of the reporting period, and decreased to background levels on 2024-09-19. The enhanced particle environment at SOHO decreased below threshold towards background levels on 2024-09-18.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate to high this reporting period due to the persistent effects of solar energetic particle events observed at GOES and SOHO and the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2024-09-22 21:12:00 22:05:00 21:39:00 M3.7 S23E65 ( 13835 )
2024-09-23 14:23:00 15:34:00 14:56:00 M1.3 S12E90 ( 13836 )
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-09-22T21:36Z ~1239 O -25/-41 37 SOHO, STEREO A
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-09-18T05:48Z ~812 C 153/-45 22 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-18T06:24Z ~620 C -160/-61 32 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-18T12:36Z ~640 C -59/-45 33 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-18T22:12Z ~851 C 131/26 12 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-19T22:00Z ~531 C NONE(POS)/41 10 SOHO
2024-09-21T11:12Z ~651 C 99/29 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-21T20:00Z ~561 C 80/55 10 SOHO
2024-09-22T19:12Z ~537 C 95/35 15 SOHO
2024-09-23T02:00Z ~512 C NONE(POS)/36 15 SOHO
2024-09-24T04:12Z ~577 C -22/-53 20 SOHO, STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2024-09-25T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2024-10-01T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between minor to moderate levels in the outlook period. There are currently eight numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Regions 13835 (S22E27) and 13836 (S10E48) each produced 1 M-class flare and multiple C-class flares during the reporting period, and may continue to exhibit notable flaring activity throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and minor levels during the outlook period due to the anticipated arrival of the O-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-09-22T21:36Z associated with the M3.7 flare from Active Region 13835 (S23E65) peaking at 2024-09-22T21:39Z. There is a slight chance for minor enhancement in the geomagnetic activity on or around 2024-09-28 due to the possible arrival of the S-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-09-23T20:48Z. Geomagnetic activity reached minor levels with Kp=5.00 during the synoptic period 2024-09-25T03:00Z-06:00Z. This increase in geomagnetic activity is associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR/ACE at L1 on 2024-09-24 mentioned previously in the summary above. A coronal hole currently observed to be crossing the central meridian near S05W00 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA) may become geoeffective on or around 2024-09-29.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-23T17:31:44Z
## Message ID: 20240923-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2024-09-23T16:25Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2024-09-19T16:50Z (see notifications 20240919-AL-001, 20240919-AL-002, and 20240921-AL-001) are caused by the arrival of CME with ID 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20240914-AL-006, 20240914-AL-007, and 20240915-AL-002). The arrival of this CME was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-09-16T22:49Z (see notification 20240916-AL-001). Geomagnetic Kp index reached level 7.67 (severe) during the synoptic period 2024-09-17T00:00Z to 2024-09-17T03:00Z (see notifications 20240917-AL-001 and 20240917-AL-005).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Lucy, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-23T20:18:45Z
## Message ID: 20240923-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO/STEREO A.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-22T21:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~1239 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -25/-41 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-22T21:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Lucy (minor impact), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-09-25T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2024-09-26T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-09-25T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-22T21:36:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2024-09-22T21:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M3.7 flare from AR 13835 (S23E65) with ID 2024-09-22T21:12:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-09-22T21:39Z.
Due to an ongoing outage, this event is not currently available in the Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-22T01:25Z
## Message ID: 20240922-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-22T21:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~1239 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -25/-41 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
NASA missions near Earth, Lucy and Parker Solar Probe can be affected. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2024-09-22T21:36:00-CME-001
## Notes:
Due to an ongoing outage, this event is not currently available in the Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-21T17:29:10Z
## Message ID: 20240921-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2024-09-21T14:40Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2024-09-19T16:50Z (see notifications 20240919-AL-001 and 20240919-AL-002) are caused by CME with ID 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20240914-AL-006, 20240914-AL-007, 20240915-AL-002).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-19T17:28:18Z
## Message ID: 20240919-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2024-09-19T16:50Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by the arrival of the CME with ID 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20240914-AL-006, 20240914-AL-007, 20240915-AL-002). The arrival of this CME was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-09-16T22:49Z (see notification 20240916-AL-001). Geomagnetic Kp index reached level 7.67 (severe) during the synoptic period 2024-09-17T00:00Z to 2024-09-17T03:00Z (see notifications 20240917-AL-001, 20240917-AL-005).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-19T16:58:44Z
## Message ID: 20240919-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2024-09-19T16:50Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for September 11, 2024 - September 17, 2024
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-18T21:29:51Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2024-09-11T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2024-09-17T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20240918-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at high levels during this reporting period with 2 X-class flares, 27 M-class flares, 2 O-type CMEs, and 12 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-09-11T02:23Z NASA missions near Earth at 2024-09-13T20:10Z Kp index 5-7 (minor to strong)
(see notification 20240911-AL-003).
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2024-09-13T18:05Z.
2024-09-13T10:12Z NASA missions near Earth at 2024-09-16T04:32Z, Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20240913-AL-007).
Ensemble results: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069/Detailed_results_20240913_101200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069.txt
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2024-09-16T04:54Z.
2024-09-14T15:36Z NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-09-16T15:38Z, Kp index 6-8 (moderate to severe)
(see notification 20240914-AL-007).
Ensemble results: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-14_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070/Detailed_results_20240914_153600_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070.txt
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2024-09-16T22:49Z (see notification 20240916-AL-001).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-09-11T02:23Z Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-12T10:14Z, STEREO A at 2024-09-13T19:54Z, Mars at 2024-09-16T04:00Z (glancing blow), and Lucy at 2024-09-14T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20240911-AL-003).
2024-09-13T02:00Z Mars at 2024-09-17T10:36Z, STEREO A at 2024-09-16T12:00Z (glancing blow), and Juno at 2024-09-29T04:00Z (see notification 20240913-AL-008).
2024-09-13T10:12Z Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-14T18:42Z, STEREO A at 2024-09-16T01:01Z, Mars at 2024-09-18T04:00Z (glancing blow) and Juno at 2024-10-01T02:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20240913-AL-007).
2024-09-13T15:12Z Mars at 2024-09-19T00:00Z (glancing blow)
2024-09-13T17:12Z Mars at 2024-09-19T00:00Z (glancing blow)
2024-09-14T04:23Z Mars at 2024-09-20T04:00Z (minor impact)
2024-09-14T15:36Z Lucy at 2024-09-16T14:25Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-15T12:01Z, and STEREO A at 2024-09-17T03:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20240914-AL-007).
Geomagnetic activity reached severe levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 7.67 during the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 7.67 occurred during the synoptic period 2024-09-17T00:00Z-03:00Z. This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2024-09-16T22:49Z which was likely associated with the arrival of the O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-09-14T15:36Z (see notification 20240916-AL-001). This arrival was also detected by STEREO A IMPACT and PLASTIC instruments around 2024-09-17T03:30Z. Earlier in the reporting period, additional enhancements in geomagnetic activity were observed on 2024-09-12 and 2024-09-13. On 2024-09-12, simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 2024-09-12T18:40Z (see notifications 20240912-AL-012 and 20240912-AL-013).
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2024-09-13T16:35Z (see notifications 20240913-AL-005, 20240913-AL-006, and 20240915-AL-001) and subsided to background levels on 2024-09-17. This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of the C-type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 2024-09-10T00:23Z detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 at 2024-09-12T02:53Z (see notification 20240912-AL-006).
A solar energetic particle event was detected by SOHO and GOES during the reporting period. Beginning on 2024-09-14, the particle environments at STEREO A, SOHO, and GOES became elevated above background levels but below their respective thresholds due to the X4.5 flare from Active Region 13825 (S18E55) which peaked at 2024-09-14T15:29Z (see notifications 20240914-AL-004 and 20240914-AL-005). The enhanced particle environment at STEREO A returned to background levels on 2024-09-16. At SOHO, the fluxes of the 15.8-39.8 and 28.2-50.1 MeV protons channels exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-09-17T04:40Z and 2024-09-17T14:31Z, respectively (see notifications 20240917-AL-004 and 20240917-AL-006). At GOES, the integral flux of the >10 MeV protons exceeded 10 pfu starting at 2024-09-17T07:35Z (see notifications 20240917-AL-002 and 20240917-AL-003). This solar energetic particle event was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2024-09-16T22:49Z which was associated with the arrival of the O-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-09-14T15:36Z (see notifications 20240914-AL-006, 20240914-AL-007, and 20240915-AL-002). The enhanced particle environment at GOES began to decrease below threshold on 2024-09-17, but remained elevated above background levels through the end of the reporting period. The particle environment at SOHO remained elevated above threshold through the end of the reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate to high this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt, the solar energetic particle events detected at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A, and the enhanced geomagnetic activity described above.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-09-11T02:23Z ~742 C 3/25 29 STEREO A, SOHO
2024-09-13T10:12Z ~768 C 29/28 29 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-14T15:36Z ~1070 O -50/8 51 SOHO
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-09-11T16:48Z ~1088 O -95/-36 31 SOHO
2024-09-12T21:48Z ~569 C -104/17 28 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-13T02:00Z ~719 C 90/-18 47 SOHO
2024-09-13T06:36Z ~501 C 99/1 22 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-13T15:12Z ~638 C 99/-2 23 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-13T17:12Z ~607 C 93/-37 21 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-14T04:23Z ~624 C 82/-53 35 SOHO
2024-09-14T18:00Z ~699 C NONE(POS)/-5 23 SOHO
2024-09-14T19:36Z ~828 C NONE(POS)/-18 13 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-16T06:23Z ~833 C NONE(POS)/12 15 STEREO A, SOHO
2024-09-17T19:24Z ~550 C -168/-48 12 SOHO, STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2024-09-18T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2024-09-24T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently six numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 13825 (S15W03) produced two X-class flares during the reporting period and may continue to produce notable flaring activity throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and minor levels during the outlook period. A coronal hole currently centered around N30W20 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA) may become geoeffective on or around 2024-09-19. Additionally, a coronal hole currently centered around S25W05 may become geoeffective on or around 2024-09-20.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (SOHO)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-17T15:22:15Z
## Message ID: 20240917-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by SOHO. The flux of one or more of the >28.2 MeV protons channels exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-09-17T14:31Z.
NASA spacecraft near L1 and near-Earth missions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-09-17T14:31:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2024-09-17T14:31:00-SEP-001) is likely associated with the arrival of O-type CME with ID 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20240914-AL-006, 20240914-AL-007, 20240915-AL-002).
This solar energetic particle event was also detected by GOES at 2024-09-17T07:35Z (see notification 20240917-AL-003) and by SOHO: COSTEP 15.8-39.8 MeV at 2024-09-17T04:40Z (see notification 20240917-AL-004).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-17T13:36:48Z
## Message ID: 20240917-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2024-09-17T09:00Z to 2024-09-17T12:00Z.
The storm is likely caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-09-16T22:49:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20240916-AL-001) and the arrival of CME with ID 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20240914-AL-006, 20240914-AL-007, 20240915-AL-002).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-09-17T00:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
The geomagnetic Kp index previously reached 7.67 (severe) levels during the synoptic period 2024-09-17T00:00Z to 2024-09-1703:00Z.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (SOHO)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-17T12:36:39Z
## Message ID: 20240917-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by SOHO. The flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-09-17T04:40Z.
NASA spacecraft at the L1 and near-Earth orbits can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-09-17T04:40:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2024-09-17T04:40:00-SEP-001) is likely associated with the arrival of O-type CME with ID 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001 (see notification 20240914-AL-006, 20240914-AL-007, 20240915-AL-002).
This solar energetic particle event was also detected by GOES at 2024-09-17T07:35Z (see notification 20240917-AL-003).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (GOES)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-17T12:23:20Z
## Message ID: 20240917-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeds 10 pfu starting at 2024-09-17T07:35Z.
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-09-17T07:35:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2024-09-17T07:35:00-SEP-001) is likely associated with the arrival of O-type CME with ID 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001 (see notification 20240914-AL-006, 20240914-AL-007, 20240915-AL-002).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-17T07:47:15Z
## Message ID: 20240917-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeds 10 pfu starting at 2024-09-17T07:35Z.
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-17T03:35:07Z
## Message ID: 20240917-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 7.67 (severe) during the synoptic period 2024-09-17T00:00Z to 2024-09-17T03:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-16T23:32:43Z
## Message ID: 20240916-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 at 2024-09-16T22:49Z.
The shock is likely caused by the CME with ID 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20240914-AL-006, 20240914-AL-007, 20240915-AL-002). Strong magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm may be expected.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-15T17:58:54Z
## Message ID: 20240915-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240914-AL-007). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 25 ensemble members (see notes section), 25 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-09-16T10:05Z and 2024-09-16T20:27Z (average arrival 2024-09-16T15:32Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 59% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-14_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070/20240914_153600_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-14_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070/20240914_153600_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-14_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070/20240914_153600_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070_Earth_stack.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-15T12:01Z, Lucy at 2024-09-16T14:25Z, and STEREO A (minor impact) at 2024-09-17T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240914-AL-007).
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-14_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070/Detailed_results_20240914_153600_ncmes1_sims25_LAHAINA070.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-15T17:26:24Z
## Message ID: 20240915-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2024-09-15T14:20Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2024-09-13T16:35Z (see notifications 20240913-AL-005, 20240913-AL-006) are caused by the arrival of CME with ID 2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001 detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 around 2024-09-12T02:53Z (see notifications 20240910-AL-002, 20240910-AL-003, and 20240912-AL-006).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-14T19:45:58Z
## Message ID: 20240914-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240914-AL-006). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-09-16T14:25Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-15T12:01Z, and STEREO A at 2024-09-17T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-09-16T15:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).
Updated CME parameters are (event upgraded/downgraded to O-type):
Start time of the event: 2024-09-14T15:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~1070 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 51 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -50/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001) is associated with X4.5 flare from AR 13825 (S18E55) with ID 2024-09-14T15:13:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-09-14T15:29Z (see notifications 20240914-AL-004, 20240914-AL-005).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions near Earth, Lucy, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-14T17:53:03Z
## Message ID: 20240914-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
R-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-14T15:36Z.
Estimated shock speed: ~2202 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 50 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -51/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
NASA spacecraft near Earth, Lucy, and Parker Solar Probe can be affected. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001) is associated with X4.5 flare from AR 3825 (S18E55) with ID 2024-09-14T15:13:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-09-14T15:29Z (see notifications 20240914-AL-004, 20240914-AL-005).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X4.5 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-14T15:37:15Z
## Message ID: 20240914-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-09-14T15:13Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-09-14T15:29Z.
Flare intensity: X4.5 class.
Source region: S18E55 (Active Region 13825) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-14T15:24:56Z
## Message ID: 20240914-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-09-14T15:19Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-14T14:37:48Z
## Message ID: 20240914-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-09-13T10:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240913-AL-007).
### Notification information (STEREO A, missions near Earth)
.... Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:
- STEREO A between about 2024-09-15T22:34Z and 2024-09-16T07:38Z (average arrival 2024-09-16T02:09Z) for 100% of simulations.
Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-09-16T00:46Z and 2024-09-16T05:03Z (average arrival 2024-09-16T03:26Z) for 25% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 99% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069/20240913_101200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069/20240913_101200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069/20240913_101200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069/20240913_101200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069/20240913_101200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069_STA_stack.gif
## Notes:
This CME event is also predicted to have a glancing blow at Mars at 2024-09-18T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) and a minor impact at Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-14T18:42Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240913-AL-007).
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-13_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069/Detailed_results_20240913_101200_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA069.txt
###
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-14T00:44:28Z
## Message ID: 20240914-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2024-09-13T21:00Z to 2024-09-14T00:00Z.
The storm may be caused by the arrival of CME with ID 2024-09-11T02:23:00-CME-001 which is still under analysis (see notification 20240911-AL-003).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-14T00:34:34Z
## Message ID: 20240914-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2024-09-13T21:00Z to 2024-09-14T00:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Juno, Mars, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-13T18:51:27Z
## Message ID: 20240913-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2024-09-13T02:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240913-AL-004). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno. The leading edge of the CME will reach Juno at 2024-09-29T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulations also estimate that the CME may affect Mars and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Mars at 2024-09-17T10:36Z and STEREO A at 2024-09-16T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
CME parameters are (C-type):
Start time of the event: 2024-09-13T02:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~719 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 47 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 90/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-13T02:00:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-13T02:00:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240913_082800_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240913_082800_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240913_082800_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-09-13T02:00:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.2 flare with ID 2024-09-12T23:57:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 3811 (S13W91) which peaked at 2024-09-13T00:00Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Juno, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-13T17:45:10Z
## Message ID: 20240913-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-13T10:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~768 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 29/28 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-13T10:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars (glancing blow) and Juno (minor impact). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-14T18:42Z, STEREO A at 2024-09-16T01:01Z, Mars at 2024-09-18T04:00Z and Juno at 2024-10-01T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-09-16T04:32Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-13T10:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-13T17:02:40Z
## Message ID: 20240913-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2024-09-13T16:35Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by the arrival of the CME with ID 2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001 around 2024-09-12T02:53Z (see notifications 20240910-AL-002, 20240910-AL-003).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-13T16:46:33Z
## Message ID: 20240913-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2024-09-13T16:35Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-13T13:35:24Z
## Message ID: 20240913-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-13T02:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~719 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 47 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 90/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-13T02:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Mars and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Mars at 2024-09-17T10:36Z and STEREO A at 2024-09-16T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-13T02:00:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2024-09-13T02:00:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.2 flare from Active Region 3811 (S13W91) with ID 2024-09-12T23:57:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-09-13T00:00Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M5.4 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-13T12:09:06Z
## Message ID: 20240913-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-09-13T06:38Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-09-13T06:56Z.
Flare intensity: M5.4 class.
Source region: S13W96 (Active Region 13811) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2024-09-13T06:38:00-FLR-001.
## Notes: The flare is occulted but is likely associated with Active Region 3811 which has rotated behind the western limb.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-13T07:08:38Z
## Message ID: 20240913-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-09-13T07:04Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-13T06:58:36Z
## Message ID: 20240913-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-09-13T06:53Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Magnetopause Crossing
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-12T18:51:36Z
## Message ID: 20240912-AL-013
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Strong compression of the magnetosphere detected. Simulations carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2024-09-12T18:40Z.
The activity is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-09-12T02:53:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20240912-AL-006), the arrival of CME with ID 2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20240910-AL-002, 20240910-AL-003).
NASA spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions.
Activity ID: 2024-09-12T18:40:00-MPC-001.
## Notes
This event was also associated with Geomagnetic Storm with ID 2024-09-12T09:00:00-GST-001 (see notifications 20240912-AL-005, 20240912-AL-007, 20240912-AL-010, 20240912-AL-011).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Magnetopause Crossing
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-12T18:02:22Z
## Message ID: 20240912-AL-012
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Strong compression of the magnetosphere detected. Simulations carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2024-09-12T18:40Z.
NASA spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-12T15:48:01Z
## Message ID: 20240912-AL-011
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 7 (strong) during the synoptic period 2024-09-12T12:00Z to 2024-09-12T15:00Z.
The storm is caused by CME with ID 2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20240910-AL-002, 20240910-AL-003).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-09-12T09:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-09-12T02:53:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20240912-AL-006).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-12T15:36:19Z
## Message ID: 20240912-AL-010
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 7 (strong) during the synoptic period 2024-09-12T12:00Z to 2024-09-12T15:00Z.
The storm is caused by CME with ID 2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20240910-AL-002, 20240910-AL-003).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-09-12T09:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-09-12T02:53:00-IPS-001 (see notification(s) 20240912-AL-006).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M6.8 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-12T15:11:03Z
## Message ID: 20240912-AL-009
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-09-12T14:41Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-09-12T14:43Z.
Flare intensity: M6.8 class.
Source region: S15W85 (Active Region 13811) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-12T14:46:26Z
## Message ID: 20240912-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-09-12T14:42Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-12T12:57:16Z
## Message ID: 20240912-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 5.67 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2024-09-12T09:00Z to 2024-09-12T12:00Z.
The storm is likely caused by CME with ID 2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20240910-AL-002, 20240910-AL-003).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-09-12T09:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-09-12T02:53:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20240912-AL-006).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-12T12:42:13Z
## Message ID: 20240912-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by DSCOVR at L1 at 2024-09-12T02:53Z.
Strong geomagnetic storm expected.
Activity ID: 2024-09-12T02:53:00-IPS-001.
## Notes:
The shock may be caused by the arrival of the CME with ID 2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20240910-AL-002, 20240910-AL-003). The signature is in development and is still being analyzed.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-12T12:34:17Z
## Message ID: 20240912-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 5.67 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2024-09-12T09:00Z to 2024-09-12T12:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.3 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-12T11:37:13Z
## Message ID: 20240912-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-09-12T09:31Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-09-12T09:43Z.
Flare intensity: X1.3 class.
Source region: S15E80 (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-12T09:46:23Z
## Message ID: 20240912-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-09-12T09:40Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for September 04, 2024 - September 10, 2024
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-12T00:55:27Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2024-09-04T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2024-09-10T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20240912-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at high level during this reporting period with 26 M-class flares, 2 O-type CMEs and 11 C-type CMEs.
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the flank of the C-type CME first visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 2024-09-08T01:36Z would reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-09-10T23:51Z (plus minus 7 hours) with possible Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate) (see notifications 20240908-AL-001 and 20240910-AL-001). An ensemble simulation was performed for this CME with 48 members which estimated the CME to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-09-10T12:27Z and 2024-09-11T04:34Z (average arrival 2024-09-10T18:52Z) for 97% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicated that there is a 69% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate). Full details of the modeled event are available here: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-09_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067/Detailed_results_20240908_034200_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067.txt (see notification 20240910-AL-001). The arrival of this CME has likely been detected at STEREO A around 2024-09-10T21:00Z and might have also been detected at L1 around 2024-09-11T14:18Z (see notification 20240911-AL-002), however the analysis of the developing arrival signature at L1 is still ongoing.
Additionally, it was estimated that the leading edge of the C-type CME first visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 2024-09-10T00:23Z would reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-09-12T16:57Z (plus minus 7 hours) with possible Kp index 5-8 (minor to severe) (see notifications 20240910-AL-002 and 20240910-AL-003). An ensemble simulation was performed for this CME with 24 members which estimated the CME to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-09-12T12:24Z and 2024-09-12T22:53Z (average arrival 2024-09-12T16:58Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 66% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong). Full details of the modeled event are available here: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-10_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068/Detailed_results_20240910_002300_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068.txt (see notification 20240910-AL-003).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-09-05T01:48Z Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-06T16:01Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-09-06T16:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20240905-AL-004).
2024-09-05T07:24Z Psyche at 2024-09-12T04:00Z (minor impact), OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-09-06T07:39Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-06T04:35Z (see notification 20240905-AL-001).
2024-09-05T11:23Z Mars at 2024-09-09T14:00Z (minor impact), STEREO A at 2024-09-08T00:00Z (glancing blow).
2024-09-06T14:48Z STEREO A at 2024-09-09T16:00Z (minor impact).
2024-09-08T01:36Z Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-09T16:59Z, STEREO A at 2024-09-10T16:04Z, Lucy at 2024-09-11T20:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2024-09-12T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20240908-AL-001, 20240910-AL-001).
2024-09-08T10:24Z Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-09T16:07Z (see notification 20240909-AL-001).
2024-09-09T01:25Z Juno at 2024-09-20T08:58Z, Mars at 2024-09-12T00:09Z, STEREO A at 2024-09-12T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20240909-AL-006).
2024-09-09T05:23Z Psyche at 2024-09-15T08:00Z (minor impact), OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-09-10T00:35Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-10T05:30Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20240909-AL-007).
2024-09-10T00:23Z Lucy at 2024-09-12T19:07Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-11T09:26Z, STEREO A at 2024-09-12T16:03Z, Mars at 2024-09-14T22:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20240910-AL-002, 20240910-AL-003).
2024-09-10T20:12Z Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-11T22:32Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-09-12T04:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20240911-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was below minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=4.33 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp <= 4.33 occurred during the synoptic period of 2024-09-04T12:00Z-15:00Z. This slight enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2024-09-04T09:40Z (see notification 20240904-AL-002), which may have been associated with the arrival of the S-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-09-01T03:24Z. This interplanetary shock was also detected by STEREO A IMPACT and PLASTIC instruments at 2024-09-04T13:17Z. These arrival signatures are currently under analysis.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt briefly crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2024-09-04T14:55Z (see notifications 20240904-AL-003 and 20240904-AL-004) but subsided to near background levels by the end of 2024-09-04. This elevation of energetic electron flux levels may have been associated with the previously mentioned arrival of a CME at L1 on 2024-09-04T09:40Z. This observed radiation belt enhancement may have also been influenced by an earlier arrival signature detected at L1 on 2024-09-03T00:37Z.
Several solar energetic particle events were detected by STEREO A, SOHO, and GOES during the reporting period. At the beginning of the reporting period, the particle environment at STEREO A, SOHO, and GOES were elevated above background levels but below their respective thresholds (see report 20240828-7D-001 for more details from the prior reporting period). Starting at 2024-09-05T15:51Z, the flux of the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A briefly exceeded the threshold of 10^(-1) pfu/MeV (see notifications 20240905-AL-002 and 20240905-AL-003), subsiding below threshold approximately two hours later. This brief solar energetic particle event may have been associated with the far-sided O-type halo CME first detected in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-09-05T07:24Z (see notification 20240905-AL-001).
Another solar energetic particle event was detected by STEREO A, GOES, and SOHO on 2024-09-09, when the flux of 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A exceeded its threshold of 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-09-09T07:58Z (see notifications 20240909-AL-002 and 20240909-AL-004), the flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeded the threshold of 10 pfu starting at 2024-09-09T08:50Z (see notifications 20240909-AL-003, 20240909-AL-005), and the fluxes of the >15.8 MeV protons channels at SOHO exceeded the threshold of 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-09-09T16:35Z (see notification 20240909-AL-008). The flux of > 100 MeV protons at GOES did not cross the threshold of 1 pfu but was elevated above background levels near this threshold on 2024-09-09. This SEP event at all three locations was likely associated with the far-sided O-type halo CME first visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 2024-09-09T05:23Z (see notification 20240909-AL-007). At STEREO A, the 13-100 MeV protons subsided below the threshold of 10^(-1) pfu/MeV around 2024-09-09T11:30Z but were elevated above threshold again starting at 2024-09-09T20:55Z (see notification 20240909-AL-010). This third solar energetic particle event at STEREO A was likely associated with the M3.4 class flare from the Active Region 13814 (N15E15) peaking at 2024-09-09T17:08Z.
By the end of the reporting period on 2024-09-10, the proton fluxes at STEREO A, SOHO, and GOES had subsided to below their respective thresholds towards background levels.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate to high this reporting period due to the solar energetic particle events at GOES, SOHO, and STEREO A and the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-09-08T01:36Z ~626 C 23/22 41 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-10T00:23Z ~755 C -5/26 43 STEREO A, SOHO
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-09-05T01:48Z ~684 C 153/19 28 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-05T07:24Z ~1329 O 171/11 54 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-05T11:23Z ~590 C 53/10 24 STEREO A, SOHO
2024-09-06T11:48Z ~592 C 93/-36 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-06T14:48Z ~528 C 49/20 17 SOHO
2024-09-06T18:00Z ~634 C 66/-62 14 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-07T01:36Z ~500 C 68/-57 12 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-08T10:24Z ~842 C 148/6 20 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-09T01:25Z ~957 C 81/13 45 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-09T05:23Z ~1452 O -133/18 45 STEREO A, SOHO
2024-09-10T20:12Z ~955 C 180/-44 35 SOHO, STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2024-09-11T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2024-09-17T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently ten active regions on the Earth-facing disk. The most notable Active Region on the disk is Active Region 13814 (N16W11) which produced several M-class flares toward the end of the reporting period and is likely to continue to be the source of significant solar activity as it traverses the Earth-facing disk. Three other Active Regions also produced notable flaring during the last few days: Active Regions 13806 and 13807 which have already rotated off the Earth-facing disk and Active Region 13811 (S12W75) which is expected to rotate behind the limb on or around 2024-09-12. These active regions may be the source of far-sided activity during the outlook period. An unnumbered active region currently located near S13E90 has recently produced an M1.8 flare on 2024-09-11 and could be the source of additional flaring activity from the Earth-facing disk during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and strong levels during the outlook period. Some enhancement in geomagnetic activity may be observed on 2024-09-11 due to the ongoing arrival at L1, with the interplanetary shock seen by ACE and DSCOVR at 2024-09-11T14:18Z (see notification 20240911-AL-002). This arrival signature is still developing and is under analysis. A minor to strong enhancement in geomagnetic activity is expected around 2024-09-12 due to the anticipated arrival of a C-type CME first visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 2024-09-10T00:23Z and associated with M1.2 flare from Active Region 13814 (N15E10) which peaked at 2024-09-10T00:28Z (see notifications 20240910-AL-002 and 20240910-AL-003). Yet another minor to strong enhancement in geomagnetic activity is possible around 2024-09-13 due to the anticipated arrival of a C-type CME first visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 2024-09-11T02:23Z and associated with M1.0 flare from Active Region 3814 (N16W03) which peaked at 2024-09-10T23:50Z (see notification 20240911-AL-003). Finally, a coronal hole currently observed to be crossing the central meridian near N40W00 along with another coronal hole currently centered around S33E20 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA) may become geoeffective on or around 2024-09-15 and 2024-09-16, respectively.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M5.0 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-12T00:52:31Z
## Message ID: 20240912-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-09-11T23:49Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-09-12T00:12Z.
Flare intensity: M5.0 class.
Source region: S15W80 (Active Region 13811) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2024-09-11T23:49:00-FLR-001.
## Notes:
Eruptive signatures, including opening field lines on the southwest limb of the Earth-facing disk, can be seen in available EUV imagery and indicate that there will likely be a CME associated with this flare. Updates on this event and any possible associated CME will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-12T00:18:17Z
## Message ID: 20240912-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-09-12T00:12Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-11T18:24:58Z
## Message ID: 20240911-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-11T02:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~742 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 3/25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-11T02:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Lucy (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-12T10:14Z and STEREO A at 2024-09-13T19:54Z. The flank of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-09-14T00:00Z and Mars at 2024-09-16T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-09-13T20:10Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-11T02:23:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2024-09-11T02:23:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.0 flare from AR 3814 (N16W03) with ID 2024-09-10T23:38:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-09-10T23:50Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-11T17:42:14Z
## Message ID: 20240911-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by DSCOVR at L1 at 2024-09-11T14:18Z.
The cause of this shock is currently under analysis. Some magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm possible.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-11T15:20:32Z
## Message ID: 20240911-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-10T20:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~955 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 180/-44 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-10T20:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Solar Orbiter and OSIRIS-APEX (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-11T22:32Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-09-12T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-10T20:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-10T22:07:55Z
## Message ID: 20240910-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240910-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:
- STEREO A between about 2024-09-12T12:04Z and 2024-09-12T23:06Z (average arrival 2024-09-12T16:51Z) for 100% of simulations.
Additionally, the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-09-12T12:24Z and 2024-09-12T22:53Z (average arrival 2024-09-12T16:58Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 66% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-10_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068/20240910_002300_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-10_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068/20240910_002300_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-10_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068/20240910_002300_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-10_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068/20240910_002300_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-10_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068/20240910_002300_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068_STA_stack.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-11T09:26Z, Lucy at 2024-09-12T19:07Z, and Mars (glancing blow) at 2024-09-14T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240910-AL-002).
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-10_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068/Detailed_results_20240910_002300_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA068.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-10T12:47:33Z
## Message ID: 20240910-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-10T00:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~755 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 43 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -5/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-09-12T19:07Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-11T09:26Z, and STEREO A at 2024-09-12T16:03Z, and the flank will reach Mars at 2024-09-14T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-09-12T16:57Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-8 (minor to severe).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.2 flare with ID 2024-09-09T23:47:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13814 (N15E10) which peaked at 2024-09-10T00:28Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-10T01:32:22Z
## Message ID: 20240910-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-09-08T01:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240908-AL-001).
### Notification information (STEREO A, Mars, missions near Earth)
Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and Mars. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:
- STEREO A between about 2024-09-10T05:38Z and 2024-09-10T18:29Z (average arrival 2024-09-10T10:44Z) for 100% of simulations.
- Mars between about 2024-09-11T03:59Z and 2024-09-11T16:33Z (average arrival 2024-09-11T09:48Z) for 89% of simulations.
Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-09-10T12:27Z and 2024-09-11T04:34Z (average arrival 2024-09-10T18:52Z) for 97% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 69% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-09_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067/20240908_034200_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-09_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067/20240908_034200_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-09_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067/20240908_034200_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-09_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067/20240908_034200_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067_arrival_Mars.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-09_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067/20240908_034200_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067_Mars_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-09_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067/20240908_034200_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-09_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067/20240908_034200_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067_STA_stack.gif
## Notes:
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-09-09_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067/Detailed_results_20240908_034200_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA067.txt
###
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (STEREO Ahead)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-09T21:20:21Z
## Message ID: 20240909-AL-010
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
New solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-09-09T20:55Z.
NASA spacecraft near the orbits of STEREO A can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-09-09T20:55:00-SEP-002.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2024-09-09T20:55:00-SEP-002) may potentially be associated with the M3.4 flare with ID 2024-09-09T16:58:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13814 (N15E15), peaking at 2024-09-09T17:08Z. Further analysis of this event is ongoing.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-09T21:09:58Z
## Message ID: 20240909-AL-009
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-09-09T20:55Z.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (SOHO)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-09T18:04:01Z
## Message ID: 20240909-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by SOHO. The flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-09-09T16:35Z.
NASA spacecraft in near-Earth orbits can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-09-09T16:35:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2024-09-09T16:35:00-SEP-001) is likely associated with the far-sided O-type halo CME with ID 2024-09-09T05:23:00-CME-001 (see notification 20240909-AL-007) and/or possibly the long duration M1.0 flare from Active Region 13806 (S05W89) with ID 2024-09-09T00:57:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-09-09T03:31Z and associated C-type CME with ID 2024-09-09T01:25:00-CME-001 (see notification 20240909-AL-006).
Earlier solar energetic particle event detected at STEREO A and GOES (see notifications 20240909-AL-002, 20240909-AL-004, 20240909-AL-003, 20240909-AL-005).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-09T15:46:29Z
## Message ID: 20240909-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-09T05:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~1452 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -133/18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-09T05:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (minor impact), OSIRIS-APEX, and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2024-09-15T08:00Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-09-10T00:35Z, and the flank of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-10T05:30Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-09T05:23:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240909_073300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240909_073300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240909_073300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240909_073300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240909_073300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240909_073300_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240909_073300_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240909_073300_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Mars, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-09T15:26:04Z
## Message ID: 20240909-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-09T01:25Z.
Estimated speed: ~957 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 81/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-09T01:25:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno, Mars, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juno at 2024-09-20T08:58Z and Mars at 2024-09-12T00:09Z, and the flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2024-09-12T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-09T01:25:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240909_061600_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240909_061600_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240909_061600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-09-09T01:25:00-CME-001) is associated with the long duration M1.0 flare from Active Region 13806 (S05W89) which peaked at 2024-09-08T03:31Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (GOES)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-09T11:57:19Z
## Message ID: 20240909-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeds 10 pfu starting at 2024-09-09T08:50Z.
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-09-09T08:50:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This event may be associated with the far-sided halo CME first visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 2024-09-09T05:23Z. Analysis of this event is on going.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-09T11:57:02Z
## Message ID: 20240909-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-09-09T07:58Z.
NASA spacecraft at orbits near STEREO A can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-09-09T07:58:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This event may be associated with the far-sided halo CME first visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 2024-09-09T05:23Z. Analysis of this event is on going.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-09T09:02:55Z
## Message ID: 20240909-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeds 10 pfu starting at 2024-09-09T08:50Z.
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-09T08:07:49Z
## Message ID: 20240909-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-09-09T07:58Z.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-09T01:29:42Z
## Message ID: 20240909-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-08T10:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~842 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 148/6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-08T10:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Solar Orbiter. The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-09T16:07Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-08T10:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-08T17:30:12Z
## Message ID: 20240908-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-08T01:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~626 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 23/22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-08T01:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Lucy (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2024-09-09T16:59Z and STEREO A at 2024-09-10T16:04Z and the flank of the CME may reach Lucy at 2024-09-11T20:00Z and Mars at 2024-09-12T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-09-10T23:51Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-08T01:36:00-CME-001):
