Message ID: 20260518-AL-001
Issue Time: 2026-05-18T15:45Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-05-18T15:45:48Z
## Message ID: 20260518-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2026-05-18T09:15Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2026-05-16T15:20Z (see notifications 20260516-AL-003, 20260516-AL-004) are caused by the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2026-05-15, reaching maximum sustained speeds of approximately 740 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 518 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2026-05-16T15:20:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
This coronal hole high speed stream is also associated with interplanetary shock with ID 2026-05-15T07:14:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20260515-AL-001) and geomagnetic storm with ID 2026-05-15T21:00:00-GST-001 (see notifications 20260516-AL-001, 20260516-AL-002).
URL: View Details
Message ID: 20260516-AL-006
Issue Time: 2026-05-16T18:38Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-05-16T18:38:46Z
## Message ID: 20260516-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-05-16T16:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~1201 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 22 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 9/37 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-05-16T16:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Europa Clipper (glancing blow) and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2026-05-20T21:00Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-05-19T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-05-19T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-05-16T16:36:00-CME-001):
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2026-05-16T16:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.9 flare from AR 14436 (N22W17) with ID 2026-05-16T15:50:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-05-16T16:12Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
GIFs:
Message ID: 20260516-AL-005
Issue Time: 2026-05-16T17:41Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, Psyche, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-05-16T17:41:17Z
## Message ID: 20260516-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A.
Start time of the event: 2026-05-16T08:09Z.
Estimated speed: ~548 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 175/2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-05-16T08:09:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Mars (glancing blow), Psyche (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Mars at 2026-05-20T08:00Z, Psyche at 2026-05-20T06:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2026-05-20T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-05-16T08:09:00-CME-001):
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_142900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_142900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_142900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_142900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_142900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_142900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
The linked simulation results also include a S-type CME event with Activity ID 2026-05-16T13:23:00-CME-001.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
GIFs:
Message ID: 20260516-AL-004
Issue Time: 2026-05-16T15:40Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-05-16T15:40:05Z
## Message ID: 20260516-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2026-05-16T15:20Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2026-05-15, reaching maximum sustained speeds of approximately 800 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 670 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2026-05-16T15:20:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
This coronal hole high speed stream is also associated with interplanetary shock with ID 2026-05-15T07:14:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20260515-AL-001), and with geomagnetic storm with ID 2026-05-15T21:00:00-GST-001 (see notifications 20260516-AL-001, 20260516-AL-002).
URL: View Details
Message ID: 20260516-AL-003
Issue Time: 2026-05-16T15:29Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-05-16T15:29:20Z
## Message ID: 20260516-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2026-05-16T15:20Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2026-05-16T15:20:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
URL: View Details
Message ID: 20260516-AL-002
Issue Time: 2026-05-16T00:10Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-05-16T00:10:22Z
## Message ID: 20260516-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.33 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2026-05-15T21:00Z to 2026-05-16T00:00Z.
The storm is caused by the coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2026-05-15.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2026-05-15T21:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2026-05-15T07:14:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20260515-AL-001).
URL: View Details
Message ID: 20260516-AL-001
Issue Time: 2026-05-16T00:07Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-05-16T00:07:01Z
## Message ID: 20260516-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.33 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2026-05-15T21:00Z to 2026-05-16T00:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2026-05-15T21:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
URL: View Details