NOAK Observatory L02

Message Type: Report

Message ID: 20260812-7D-001

Issue Time: 2026-08-12T20:15Z

Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for August 05, 2026 - August 11, 2026
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-08-12T20:15:11Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2026-08-05T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2026-08-11T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20260812-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

## Summary:

Solar activity was at low levels during this reporting period with 8 C-type CMEs (see details below).

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:

CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2026-08-08T03:23Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-08-11T12:56Z, Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notifications 20260808-AL-007, 20260808-AL-010).
Ensemble: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-08-08_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO097/Detailed_results_20260808_032300_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO097.txt
The arrival of this CME was detected at L1 around 2026-08-11T10:32Z.
2026-08-08T08:15Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-08-12T00:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 2-3 (below minor)
(see notification 20260808-AL-002).

It was also estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact the listed locations:

CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2026-08-06T17:38Z BepiColombo at 2026-08-07T12:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2026-08-11T00:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2026-08-10T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260807-AL-001).
2026-08-07T06:36Z Solar Orbiter at 2026-08-08T02:19Z, Europa Clipper at 2026-08-11T06:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2026-08-23T06:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20260807-AL-002).
2026-08-07T23:00Z Solar Orbiter at 2026-08-08T22:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20260808-AL-003, 20260808-AL-006).
2026-08-08T00:36Z Europa Clipper at 2026-08-12T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260808-AL-005).
2026-08-08T03:23Z Juice at 2026-08-12T09:47Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-08-12T13:55Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-08-10T02:28Z, Europa Clipper at 2026-08-12T12:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2026-08-11T20:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20260808-AL-007, 20260808-AL-010).
2026-08-08T08:15Z BepiColombo at 2026-08-09T05:08Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-08-10T01:49Z, STEREO A at 2026-08-10T22:38Z, Juice at 2026-08-12T08:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2026-08-12T16:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2026-08-12T18:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260808-AL-002).
2026-08-09T04:24Z Europa Clipper at 2026-08-13T07:00Z (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter at 2026-08-10T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260809-AL-001).

Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 5.67 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.67 occurred during synoptic period 2026-08-08T18:00Z to 2026-08-08T21:00Z (see notifications 20260808-AL-008, 20260808-AL-009). This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with an interplanetary shock detected at L1 by SOLAR-1 at 2026-08-08T05:54Z which was associated with the arrival of the S-type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-08-04T13:23Z (see notification 20260808-AL-001). Simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 2026-08-08T18:07Z (see notification 20260808-AL-004).

The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES remained below the threshold level of 1000 pfu for the entire reporting period.

The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES, the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV proton channels at SOHO, and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were at background levels for the entire reporting period.

Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been low this reporting period.

##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
None Observed

CMEs (>500 km/s):

Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2026-08-08T03:23Z ~574 C 5/24 33 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2026-08-08T08:15Z ~734 C 49/-13 41 GOES, STEREO A

Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2026-08-06T17:38Z ~779 C 126/-20 21 STEREO A, GOES
2026-08-07T06:36Z ~785 C -92/5 35 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-08-07T23:00Z ~569 C -106/20 21 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-08-08T00:36Z ~774 C -74/22 22 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-08-09T04:24Z ~781 C -76/24 25 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-08-10T01:48Z ~601 C -105/30 10 SOHO, GOES

## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2026-08-12T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2026-08-18T23:59Z

Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently five numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Regions 14507 (N04E32) and 14508 (N06E59) have produced C-class flaring activity in the reporting period and may continue to produce similar levels of flaring activity during the outlook period.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at low levels during the outlook period. A small coronal hole centered around (N18W15) (as seen in available imagery from SDO/AIA 193) may reach geoeffective longitudes on or around 2026-08-13.

## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s

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NOAK Observatory (L02)

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Message Type: Report

Message Type: IPS